AER 153: Venezuela War Begins with Maduro’s Kidnapping

In the early morning of January 3, 2026, the US bombed Venezuela and kidnapped its president and its first lady. As of Day 1 of the war, Venezuela’s government is intact and popular mobilizations are calling for their president’s return. Trump has said that the US will run Venezuela and take its oil. Some insights from various analysts and some thoughts on the long war (or massacres, in the event of a surrender) that the US has begun.

Migration from Venezuela

Did 7+ million really leave the country to flee socialism?

Daniel Coronel, a journalist with the US-based television network Univision, recently interviewed Colombian president Gustavo Petro. At about the 55 minute point of the interview, Coronel said to Petro that “the misery and repression that Venezuela has suffered at the hands of Maduro’s dictatorship has caused millions to flee.”

This little quip, this off-hand remark, is actually one of the major remaining regime change talking points about Venezuela.

We’ve addressed most of the others – the elections, the constitution, the notion that Venezuela is an “extraordinary threat” to the US – in our book. In a recent substack, we addressed the newest lie: that Venezuela is a meaningful source of drugs to the US.

In this one we address the idea that Venezuela should be destroyed because supposedly seven million Venezuelans have fled socialism.

We believe that anti-Maduro sources have 1. grossly exaggerated the scale of migration from Venezuela since 2015, 2. ignored that US sanctions have caused such migration as did occur, and 3. also ignored mass migration from U.S. client states like Ecuador.

Is this true though?

Pre-2015 lies about the scale and causes of Venezuelan migration

By the time Chavez died in 2013, Venezuela’s GDP per capita was close to achieving the historical peak it reached in 1977, After reaching that peak in 1977, Venezuela went through decades of ruinous decline. By 1992, the New York Times reported that “only 57% of Venezuelans are able to afford more than one meal a day.” But migration from Venezuela, compared to other Latin American countries, was never very significant despite this disaster. Despite outlandish claims in anti-Chavez media, emigration was still not significant while Chavez was in office, enacting policies to enable Venezuela’s recovery from the post-1977 decline.

In 2011, the Venezuelan newspaper El Universal erroneously reported a World Bank figure for the total number of Venezuelan-born people living anywhere else in the world as of 2010 (521,000) – a figure that included people who had left Venezuela in any year – as the total number of Venezuelans who left in 2010 alone.

In 2015, Reuters uncritically cited an anti-Chavez academic (Tomas Paez) who claimed that 1.5 million Venezuelans had left Venezuela since Chavez took office in 1999 – in other words that about 100,000 Venezuelans per year had left between 1999 – 2015. World bank figures at the time suggested about 25,000 Venezuelans per year left Venezuela during most of that period, about one quarter the number Reuters had uncritically accepted from Paez, and one twentieth the number El Universal had reported in 2011. [1]

TABLE 1

2015 – 2017 migration from Venezuela begins to take off for real

As a result of US sanctions and an oil price collapse, migration from Venezuela did, indeed, begin to explode in 2015.

A few months before Hugo Chavez died of cancer in 2013, he urged his supporters to vote for Nicolas Maduro as his successor. They did. Maduro won the snap election that was held in April 2013. But Maduro was immediately hit with violent US-backed protests that year – and then again in 2014 and 2017. Adding to Maduro’s difficulties, in the last quarter of 2014, the high oil prices on which Venezuela’s economy depended collapsed by half, and remained very low for years.

Early in 2015, Obama added to the pressure by imposing broad economic sanctions on Venezuela. Obama’s apologists deny the significance of the sanctions by saying they merely outlawed dealing with seven Venezuelan government officials that the US accused of human rights abuses. But this ignores the problem of “over compliance” with US sanctions, built into their design: scaring investors away from dealing with Venezuela at all. In addition to the sanctions, Obama officials successfully pressured banks not to make low risk loans to Venezuela’s government.

The combined impact of collapsed oil prices and Obama’s malevolence did indeed cause a sharp increase in migration. One way to confirm that migration from Venezuela did indeed begin to take off is to look at the number of Venezuelans arriving only in the US. If the U.S. had some powerful political incentive to do so, it would certainly exaggerate the number of Venezuelan migrants in the United States, but it has no need to do that. Even with the very low numbers of Venezuelan migrants – receiving only 7% of the migration that has been claimed since 2015 – it has treated them in an astoundingly cruel and lawless manner. According to Pew Research, as of 2024, Venezuelans were still only the ninth largest Latino group living in the United States despite the rapid growth in its population in recent years.

According to Pew Research, Venezuelan migration to the USA averaged 7,000 people per year between 2000 to 2013. It increased to 28,000 per year by 2015; then to about 44,000 per year in the 2015-2020 period. [2] Trump caused migration to accelerate when he dramatically intensified US sanctions on Venezuela in August of 2017, and then again in 2018, 2019 and 2020.[3]

TABLE 2:

A suspiciously low level of Venezuelan migration to the US

Today, UN Population Division data claims that 7.6 million people have left Venezuela since 2015. If that were accurate then one should expect to see a vastly higher number of Venezuelan migrants in the US. As of 2021, the UN Population Division claimed that over 5 million had left Venezuela since 2015. But as of 2021 (see below) the number of Venezuelan migrants in the US remained lower than from other Latin American countries that have much smaller populations than Venezuela: El Salvador, Guatemala, Dominican Republic, and Honduras.

In the case of Ecuador, which has roughly half Venezuela’s population, its migrant population in the US was very close to Venezuela’s in 2021. During the 1990s and early 2000s, migration from Ecuador to the US skyrocketed. As shown in Table 3, between 2013 – 2021 migration slowed tremendously., But as of 2024, Ecuador, which has been under disastrous pro-US rightwing rule since 2017 (as it was during the 1990s and early 2000s) provides the second largest growing Latino migrant community in the US after Venezuela according to Pew Research.[4]

Table 3

Reliable data collection and collaboration with the Lima Group don’t mix

As of 2020, the UN Population Division had been reporting that just under 2 million Venezuelans had migrated from 2015 – 2019, about half the figure other UN agencies were reporting. The much higher figures were the ones widely amplified by western media. But the UN Population Division dramatically revised its numbers upward around the time of a conference that took place in Ottawa on June 17, 2021. The conference was held to raise money for Venezuelan migrants and refugees. It was hosted by the Canadian government “in collaboration with” the UNHCR, the UN Refugee Agency, and the International Organization for Migration” .

In 2017, the Canadian government spearheaded the formation of the “Lima Group”. Canada recruited rightwing Latin American governments into this group which had the explicit aim of overthrowing Maduro – “reporting democracy in Venezuela” as they put it. After 2019, the Lima Group recognized the US-appointed Juan Guaido as the interim president of Venezuela. The Lima Group was joined by Bolivia in 2020 while the country was run by the US-backed fascist dictator, Jeanine Áñez.

We should not have to explain how damning it is that various UN agencies that provide data on migration from Venezuela were openly collaborating with the Lima Group. Moreover, as Venezuelan researchers with SURES have pointed out, increased estimates of Venezuelan migrants leads to increased budgets for UN agencies and NGOs who work with them. As one of us (Emersberger) observed, other UN agencies, including UNICEF, have made extremely dubious revisions to historical data that appear motivated by a desire to bolster US propaganda.

Ignored Estimates, and trends that would have emptied Venezuela by now

The surveys done by anti-Maduro Venezuelan academics (ENCOVI surveys) suggest about 2.3 million people left Venezuela between 2015 to 2019. (Data in Table 4 below is taken from ENCOVI surveys here and here.) [5] That’s very similar to what the UN Population Division estimated before it drastically revised its data upwards.

Table 4: ENCOVI Estimates

In a February 2019 interview with the BBC, President Maduro gave an estimate of “no more than” 800,000 Venezuelans who had migrated in the previous two years (2017 and 2018).[6] That’s not far off what ENCOVI estimated.

Anti-Maduro Venezuelan economist Francisco Rodriguez noted in a 2024 paper that Venezuela’s economy has been in recovery since 2020 posting four straight years of positive economic growth despite U.S. sanctions. Rodriguez observed that UN agencies have documented a big reduction in the rate of migration from Venezuela since 2020. But their estimates were so high from the 2015-2018 period that they had to come way down regardless of any economic recovery. At the rate the UN Population Division claims Venezuelan migration was accelerating between 2015 to 2018, Venezuela would have been completely empty by 2023 had the trend continued.[7] Despite this, all accounts confirm that there are indeed Venezuelans still in Venezuela.

Despite this, all accounts confirm that there are indeed Venezuelans still in Venezuela.

A Venezuelan researcher explained to us the various problems with double counting that can occur, setting aside deliberate manipulation of the data (which we believe occurred). She told us that a large number of Venezuelans returned during the COVID pandemic – often through uncontrolled points (trochas). People often returned then migrated again creating one possibility for double counting. It is not clear how many people work in border areas near Colombia but actually continue to reside in Venezuela, or get counted as residing in Colombia despite having moved to another country.

We do not deny that there has been a massive and unprecedented amount of migration from Venezuela since 2015, but we do not believe the numbers cited in western media. No one should blindly accept claims made by UN agencies and NGOs that have a track record of serving US imperialism – especially when Washington ramps up the pressure on an official enemy.

NOTES:

[1] The data in Table 1 can be found here, here, here and here.

[2] The data in Table 2 can be found here, here and here

[3] Table 1 of this paper by Venezuelan economist Francisco Rodriguez provides a timeline of US sanctions on Venezuela.

[4] 2021 is the most recent year for which we could find data for Latino groups in the US broken down into “US born” and “foreign born” (migrants).

[5] The 2017 Ecovi study found 815,000 emigrated between 2012 to 2017 of which 11.5%, 38.5% and 40.3% emigrated in 2015, 2016 and 2017 respectively. The figures were then updated to 2019.

[6] See the 3 minute mark of the video

[7] Rodriguez provides annual UN Population Division migration data in his paper. Using this curve fit website, we fit a second order polynomial through the data points for 2016, 2017 and 2018 to establish a trend line. We then projected that trend into future years. By 2023, 29 million Venezuelans would have migrated. The World Bank estimates Venezuela current population as 28.4 million

The invention of “Venezuela drugs”

And the plan to bring Israel’s post-2023 genocidal warfare to the Americas

US/Israel rules of war: build a lie, then slaughter civilians from the air

There’s a widespread belief that every lie contains a kernel of truth. If it was ever the case it is not any more. The belief is a potent tool in the hands of an imaginative propagandist who is capable of inventing a lie from whole cloth. Such is the nature of the lie about Venezuela being a source of drugs. It is a lie that has been invented in front of us, in real time. For while the US has been trying to destroy Venezuela for decades, it has now become even less honest about it than it used to be.

We live in an age of the whole cloth type of lie. Joe Biden talked about seeing photos of beheaded babies that he did not, in fact, see. Tony Blinken solemnly told the story of murderers eating lunch with a dead family that never existed. Eli Beer said he saw a baby in an oven that, like Biden, he did not, in fact, see. Yossi Landau reported seeing beheaded babies that he did not, in fact, see. Direct, specific, detailed, lies.

Why they told these lies is obvious enough: to justify crimes, the enemy must be dastardly and to justify genocide, only the most lurid tales are worth telling. American media has a long and sordid history of atrocity propaganda. Specific lies are told to create specific outcomes.

In the American arsenal of lies, the “Venezuela drugs” lie is perhaps most analogous to the “Hamas uses human shields” lie. For if “Venezuela drugs” is true, any kind of “war on drugs” action is justified, the same way “Hamas uses human shields” opens up all the world to any kind of genocidal act. Any human is killable as a “Hamas human shield”, and any act of theft or warfare can be justified in fighting the drugs.

The US and Israel have learned that they can act without moral or legal restraint and have found the political costs of committing genocide containable, the levels of dissent for bringing wars to new countries (Yemen, Iran, Qatar…) bearable. Harris and Emersberger have argued recently that it is very difficult to imagine a way to avoid escalating attacks on Venezuela, however unlikely they may be to lead to “regime change”.

Post-2023 propaganda is so brazen that at times it seems it isn’t even intended to be believed by its own adherents. We are not sure of the value of debunking it. But we do so in the hope that by watching how they make a story from nothing, we can learn something about how they plan to do propaganda in their new genocidal world.

The first decades of the US assault on Venezuela’s democracy took place without the slightest “drugs” pretext

We wrote a book that debunked US government propaganda about Venezuela spanning over two decades: 1998- 2021. We showed that the US government’s lies were also the western media’s lies- as well as the lies told by prominent NGOs like Human Rights Watch and Amnesty International. All these dishonest institutions worked in unison to depict Venezuela as becoming a dictatorship after the election of Hugo Chávez in 1998.

In our book, you’ll find very little debunking of the idea that Venezuela is a hub for drug trafficking. That’s because that particular lie played almost no role in US propaganda about Venezuela until 2020.

On the contrary, we noted in our book that during the 1980s the organized groups in poor urban neighborhoods that later developed into the base that brought Chavez to power were largely motivated to keep drug dealers out of their neighborhoods. With hindsight, we should also have mentioned that the CIA was caught shipping drugs through Venezuela into the US during the early 1990s. A pro-US government was in office at that time.

As US-led efforts to overthrow Venezuela’s government intensified after the death of Chavez in 2013, so did ferocity of the attacks by media and NGOs on Chavez’s successor, Nicolas Maduro. If you believed the media’s Venezuela coverage, you’d have thought that Venezuela was going through a famine – all because Maduro was tyrannical, incompetent and corrupt. That was the media’s chosen lie for that time: it had nothing to do with Venezuela supposedly shipping drugs to the US.

In 2015, when Obama first declared a “national emergency” claiming Venezuela an “extraordinary threat” to the U.S., the media downplayed that lunatic claim. It was reported as a mere legal “formality” Obama used to punish Venezuela over its alleged lack of democracy and human rights.

The imperial script didn’t change initially under Trump. In February of 2019, the US brought “humanitarian aid” to Colombia (an actual hub of the US-controlled hemispheric illicit drug trade) and demanded that it be allowed into Venezuela. As late as 2019, Trump was still claiming to be motivated by a desire to bring democracy and prosperity to Venezuela. There was an obvious threat of a US invasion during the aid stunt, but it turned out to be a bluff aimed at enticing the Venezuelan military to defy Maduro. It failed.

That’s when Trump changed the propaganda script.

The “extraordinary threat” posed by Venezuela would now be sold as a reality, not a legal “formality” everyone was supposed to ignore.

2020: Enter the “Venezuela drugs” lie

In 2020, Trump said the US would give a $15 million reward to people who helped capture Maduro. Trump’s Department of Justice formally charged Maduro (and many of his top officials) with attempting to “flood the United States with cocaine”. The same media that had downplayed Obama’s declaration of an “extraordinary threat” from Venezuela began to report Trump’s ridiculous claims with minimal scrutiny. In other words, the media followed the new White House script on Venezuela.

But massive plot holes in the new script were obvious and easily found in establishment media – in articles that were written before Trump changed the script. Business Insider, citing the US Strategic Command, had published a map (shown below) in 2017 showing the countries from which illegal drugs flowed north towards the US. The routes were overwhelmingly from Colombia, with barely any from Venezuela. In fact, the article never mentioned Venezuela at all.

An additional plot hole: in September of 2020 photos and video emerged of Juan Guaido smiling with ( and being chauffeured around by) members of the armed Colombian drug-trafficking gang, Los Rastrojos. Juan Guaido was the Venezuelan legislator that Trump had christened as Venezuela’s interim president in 2019.

The man the US tried to install as Venezuela’s president, and a drug lord

Yet another plot hole: The Alex Saab case. In 2020, the U.S. government kidnapped Saab, a businessman and special envoy for Venezuela’s government, and charged him with money laundering, but it did not accuse him of drug trafficking. The U.S. claimed Saab had illegally profited from Venezuelan government contracts – and that he had moved the profits through US banks, thus bringing him under universal US Treasury jurisdiction. The US claimed Saab was a key player in Maduro’s supposed corruption network. If that were true, wouldn’t Saab have played a role in “flooding US streets with cocaine” as Trump now alleged?

While Saab was imprisoned, articles appeared spreading US claims that Saab had been an informant for the US Drug Enforcement Agency (DEA). But if Saab had betrayed Venezuela he’d have been given asylum in the U.S., not kidnapped and imprisoned. And he would not have dared return to Venezuela.

Saab was released in 2023 in exchange for ten US citizens who were imprisoned in Venezuela. Saab, who is Colombian-born, not only returned to Venezuela but was appointed Maduro’s Minister of Industries and National Production.

Manufacturing fear, not consent

The other day, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio dismissed a reporter who asked him about a recent UN report on the illegal drug trade. The reporter noted that 87% of US-bound shipments go through Colombia and Ecuador; only 5% go through Venezuela. “I don’t care what the UN says” huffed Rubio in response . To add to the absurdity, Rubio said this while visiting Ecuador, where US-backed rightwing rule has, since 2017, transformed the country into a key part of the illegal drug trade.

Rubio’s contemptuous response raises a chilling question. Does the U.S. even care if the public buys the drug pretext?

Is “manufacturing consent” important to them at this point – when the US is openly sponsoring a Holocaust in Gaza? It seems they don’t care very much if we hate what they do. They simply don’t think we can stop them.

The eternal “War on Drugs”, real-world countries with drug problems, real-world solutions to drug problems…

The war on drugs was coined by Richard Nixon in 1971, formally declared by Ronald Reagan in 1982. By contrast, the US occupation of Afghanistan ended after 20 years. After Israel’s occupation of Palestine (77 years), the war on drugs, 43 years on, must be one of the longest running wars in the world. Drugs aren’t really a belligerent though, so it isn’t actually a war.

In fact the changing legal status of drugs, the infrastructures of police, informants, incarceration, counterinsurgency, and US regime change campaigns have all been very useful US foreign policy tools in the USA, in the Americas, in Afghanistan, in Southeast Asia, in Eastern Europe – all over the world. Colombian and Bolivian peasants, Black people in the US, understood the “drug war” as a rhetorical tool to oppress them. But the “drug war” is much more than this: it is a sphere of massive wealth accumulation in its own right, with the fortunes deposited ultimately in Western banks. It is a method for raising off-the-books cash to pay for bribes, assassinations, massacres, and land theft operations. It remains the principal rationale for a number of US government agencies and millions of American jobs – between the illegal drug trade and the law enforcement and judiciary officials whose livelihoods depend on it.

Watching TV series like The Wire or Narcos, you get a false sense of how the business evolves and control of it moves from one group in one city to the next. The big picture missed on prestige television is that this is a global business which, like all big business in this world, can only occur with active facilitation by the US and will ultimately end up in US oligarchic hands – which it has. Which is why neither the drug business nor the war on drugs are going anywhere. If regime change succeeds and Venezuela becomes a colony of the US again, you can expect the country will actually become a drugs hub like Afghanistan was during the decades of US occupation and Colombia is today.

Does drug addiction cause harm? Of course it can. Many countries around the world have programs to address these harms. Some are harsh, like the Taliban’s faith-based prohibition program in Afghanistan. Others, like Iran’s program of registering addicts and providing a maintenance dose, are less so. Cuba has had success with a model of registration and compulsory abstinence with community support. Recreational marijuana (and alcohol and tobacco) is legal and big business in Canada. Venezuela has a fairly punitive approach. But only the US has gone to war with drugs for 45 years and counting.

It’s always been known how the US could win the war on drugs: legalization and state control. But many would lose from that victory, and these are all-important constituencies: police, state agencies, covert operators, bankers, and narcotraffickers galore. Don’t ask America to turn her back on its most beloved. The drug war is the gift that keeps on giving.

But that doesn’t answer why the switch of lies happened five years ago. About this, we can only speculate. Why did the US decide to change from vilifying socialism and alleging procedural constitutional violations to instead scream about “drugs”?

The answer is unlikely to be deep. Perhaps there was a focus group where one pretext was going stale and another resonated better. Perhaps the “drug” pretext carries with it the possibilities of more incremental demonstrable “wins” – a video of a blown up boat, perhaps seizures of planted contraband for photos, more deportations of Venezuelans. Maybe this is a better image and content engine than one regime change failure after another.

Drugs are also a pretext that gives the US more freedom to attack or threaten other neighbours, since there are few socialists in power and drugs can be attributed to anyone. Then again, socialists can also be invented where they don’t exist.

Regime change remains a very difficult proposition, even if the US expands its atrocities, as it almost certainly will. Exposing their lies must have some value, but much more than that is needed to stop them.

AEP 92: Q/A on Extraordinary Threat, our new book on Venezuela

Your Extraordinary Threat questions, answered

Joe and I answer some questions listeners sent in about our new book about Venezuela, Extraordinary Threat, from Monthly Review. Questions include: Was Venezuela “once-prosperous” before Chavez? Has Maduro been true to Chavez’s vision? What’s the COVID vaccination situation? Can we comment on Hong Kong? What is the internal social base of US imperialism in Venezuela? Can all the problems of Venezuela be placed at the feet of US imperialism? And more.

Episode 46 of In the Context of Empire

Matt McKenna from In the Context of Empire interviewing… me.

I was a guest on the fantastic podcast, In the Context of Empire, where I spoke with co-host Matt McKenna about lots of things, but mainly about how imperialist propaganda works. 

AEP 75: The Dec 6 Venezuelan Legislative Elections

Even with the sanctions and the US economic war, Venezuela at least now has a legislature that can legislate

Maria Victor and I talk about the December 6 legislative elections in Venezuela. Turnout was low at 31%, but that’s normal for legislative elections* in a pandemic (Romania had around the same turnout on the same day, as others have pointed out). We talk about the electoral system in Venezuela, why it’s more fair than you’ve been led to believe, the disgraceful role Canada continues to play in trying to foment a coup in Venezuela, and what the new legislature is likely to do.

*Correction: Maria refers to the previous legislative elections in Venezuela as having a turnout of 25% – the 2015 legislative elections actually had a turnout of 75%. The 2005 legislative elections, however, had a turnout of 25%.

Civilizations Series Episode 12a: South American Independence pt1 – Miranda and Bolivar

South American Independence pt1 – Miranda and Bolivar

The struggles for Independence against the Spanish Empire rocked the Western Hemisphere at the beginning of the 19th century and changed the world. We focus on Simon Bolivar to tell this story in two parts. In this part, the Precursor, Francisco de Miranda, and the first half of Simon Bolivar’s campaigns.

The Anti-Empire Project Episode 50: Iranian Tanker Arrives in Venezuela – quick reaction

Quick reaction to the Iranian tanker’s arrival in Venezuela

A quick 12 minute reaction as the first Iranian tanker (Fortune) arrives in Venezuela with gasoline to alleviate shortages there. Some notes on the cruelty of the US sanctions regime, on why an oil producing country like Venezuela needs gasoline (for now), and what is likely to happen next.

Anti-Empire Project Episode 48: The Goudreau-Silvercorp Coup in Venezuela, Foiled

The Goudreau-Silvercorp Coup in Venezuela, Foiled

I talk to Maria Victor after the foiling of the May 3, 2020 terrorist plot against Venezuela, which involved the infiltration of American mercenaries by boat from Colombia. One of the mercenaries, Jean Goudreau of Silvercorp, gave an interview just before the attack where he revealed a signed contract with self-declared president Juan Guaido. We talk about this as the latest in a continuous run of coup attempts against Venezuela for the past twenty years.