World War Civ 47: Germany Collapses 1918

Ludendorff’s final gamble has failed, fizzling out like every mass offensive of this war. The war is now unwinnable for Germany. But the Germans won’t admit it, and can’t find anyone to sign an armistice. Eventually someone is found, and the myth of the “stab in the back” begins to be written, a myth that will set us up for the next World War. But for now, the final military episode of World War Civ: Germany Collapses, 1918.

The boiling frog vs. the forever war

Reviewing resistance and genocide strategies

They’ll be running the genocide together in 2025

The persistent resistance strategy

After a year of Israel’s genocide in Gaza, now expanding to Lebanon, the strategy of the Axis of Resistance can be roughly mapped. As Sharmine Narwani of the Cradle puts it, the strategy is one of “boiling the frog”. This lecture was just before the pager attack and the war on Lebanon began, but after a shaky period, Hezbollah returned to effectiveness without changing the strategy. Israel intensifies its genocide, with a focus on North Gaza, but the Axis has stuck to the plan: 

  • Take Israeli prisoners to try to exchange for Palestinian prisoners

  • Naval economic blockade from Yemen to generate economic pressure

  • Steady missile and rocket fire on Israeli military targets (and at various targets of the US occupation of Syria) from Lebanon, Iraq, Yemen, and Gaza to generate psychological pressure

  • Resistance in the West Bank (mostly the northern West Bank – Jenin, Nablus, Tulkarem, and Tubas) to tie up Israeli forces

  • Inflict steady casualties on Israeli ground forces wherever they deploy in Gaza and now Lebanon

  • Maintain the threat of major destructive standoff missile attacks from Iran

The stated objective of the Axis, articulated by the late Hezbollah Secretary-General, Hassan Nasrallah, is to win a ceasefire on Hamas’s terms. The Axis hope is that Israel would agree to a ceasefire rather than face a worse alternative: a collapse from within. This would mean a critical mass of soldiers refusing to fight in the face of an unwinnable war, and a critical mass of Israeli settlers leaving for greener pastures in the face of an untenable future. 

As Scott Ritter told Danny Haiphong on Nov 13/24, if Israel fails by internal collapse, then there won’t be a specific trigger moment for Israel to use its nuclear weapons to destroy the region in the so-called “Samson Option”. Samson could be invoked by Netanyahu in his bunker if his enemies are closing in – and the Axis is trying to win in a way that doesn’t lead to world destruction, which is why the Axis would settle at any moment for a ceasefire with full withdrawal from Gaza and Lebanon, an end to the siege, and an exchange of prisoners.

The evolving genocide plan

Now let’s also review the more complicated US-Israeli strategy. 

  • Total war – genocide: aerial bombardment and ground-based demolition, targeting, above all hospitals, civilian infrastructure, and gatherings of civilians.

  • Avoid occupation of populated areas and responsibility for the occupied population: use genocidal tactics to try to depopulate targeted areas (Gaza, south Lebanon). 

  • Depopulation is the long-term goal and a difficult one: short-term, the strategy is just to keep up a continuous and unending series of raids. The ideal air raid is of an encampment of refugees in Gaza, which has no air defense. The ideal ground raid is one where a village in Lebanon is wired with explosives by an engineering unit that withdraws before they can be attacked by Hezbollah infantry. 

  • Terrorist attacks including the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, the pager attack, and the dropping of 80-tons of bombs to assassinate Nasrallah.  

  • Mobilize Israeli society to support genocide, mass rape, and other atrocities using atrocity propaganda and related methods. 

  • Media strategy centered on dehumanization of all of Israel’s enemies as “terrorists”, and have Western media and politicians insist that total war on an entire society is justified if there are “terrorists” among them. 

  • Censorship and state repression to depress solidarity movements in the West, Jordan, Egypt, and other strategic countries run by US allies. 

  • Discard all relevant UN resolutions, international laws, and international court rulings. Establish the precedents that the law does not apply to Israel, diplomacy does not apply to Israel, Israel does not negotiate.

  • Refuse prisoner exchange – kill prisoners or kill Israelis before they can become prisoners (“Hannibal Doctrine”).

  • Condition Israeli society to absorb higher casualties and missile attacks while inflicting vastly disparate casualties in Gaza especially (and increasingly, Lebanon) to try to defeat the “deterrence equation” of the Axis of Resistance and thereby avoid the Axis’s ceasefire terms.

  • Obtain higher subsidies from the US to outlast economic attrition.

Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz on X: “In Lebanon, there will be no ceasefire and no respite. We will continue to hit Hezbollah with full force until the goals of the war are achieved. Israel will not agree to any arrangement that does not guarantee Israel’s right to enforce and prevent terrorism on its own, and meeting the goals of the war in Lebanon, disarming Hezbollah and withdrawing them beyond the Litani River and returning the residents of the north safely to their homes.”

The stated objectives of the war: to return Israeli settlers to northern Israel, return Israeli prisoners from Gaza, and to destroy Hamas and Hezbollah – would all follow from the overall objective which is to restore Israel’s dominance. To establish that it is Israel, not its enemies, who determine what happens in the lands that are of interest to it. If dominance is restored, Israel will be able to place its settlers where it wishes, administer the Palestinian prison population as it wishes and where it wishes (in ever-smaller enclaves and perhaps in a re-occupied Sinai), and move the Lebanese population where it wishes. 

Dominance means a society whose primary activity is the administration of prison camps and a military whose primary activity is conducting raids against starving civilians.

Dominance is the current situation, in other words, extended forever into the future. The Western elite will support such a project, financially and politically, unto death. But: can Israel contain the resistance to the point that life can feel somewhat normal for enough Israelis to keep the project going (relying on the fact that resistance rockets have relatively small payloads and high-payload missiles are rather infrequent and could perhaps be spent if enough time passes)? Can Israeli society be conditioned to accept that this is life now, that there will never be a “normal” life again? Are there enough Israelis who are willing to live like this and fight for this? Does America have the resources to support this life? 

Unlimited objectives -> unwinnable war

The Axis of Resistance strategy seems to be based on the hope that the US and Israel can be forced to see reason. Is the US capable of making the strategic decision to call Israel off before dominance has been restored (since it might never be)? Israel and the West have jumped together off the cliff of racial supremacy. The restoration of dominance could be too open-ended of a goal for victory to be possible. 

The US-Israeli victory could look like this: Israel kills everyone in Gaza through famine and bombing, 2 million people, over another year or two. America bombs Yemen so much that Ansarallah is effectively destroyed. Israel depopulates Lebanon to the Litani river, destroys Hezbollah and kills most of Lebanon’s Shia population, another million or more people. Then Israel moves on to the West Bank. Then Syria. Then Iran. Against Iran, there’s not an easily imagined path to victory, but let’s stretch and imagine a miraculous short war that leads to a regime change in Iran and a bloodless coup to bring back the Shah. Egypt and Jordan wait, docile, for Israel to finish with these enemies before offering themselves for occupation. And the march continues like that… or the war with Iran leads to nuclear escalation and perhaps the destruction of human civilization. 

Israeli leaders have expressed as war aims things like “the destruction of all resistance” and “the continuation of the war”. So if the war ends on Israel’s terms, the war doesn’t end. With diplomacy and international law discarded, Israel has to continue warring and genociding until it is stopped. 

To rephrase Frederic Jameson, it’s becoming easier to imagine the end of the world than to imagine the US-Israel stopping their genocide.

Scott Ritter in the aforementioned video with Danny Haiphong ventured a prediction that the project of Israel and the ideology of Zionism would eventually come to an end and be absorbed into a unitary Palestinian state, the way Apartheid South Africa ended and became the South Africa of today. The other options seem to be forever war or world destruction. 

World War Civ 46: Ludendorff’s Last Gamble Spring 1918

With peace in the East, Germany can finally try to win the war against France in the West, and the clock is ticking before America’s troops make the war unwinnable. In addition to assembling a gigantic army and the largest artillery barrage in history, Ludendorff introduces Storm Troopers and a new tactic of “infiltration” past the defensive strong points to roll up later. But the British manage to retreat instead of breaking, and the final German offensive runs out of steam in August. The tide has turned against Germany. The stalemate is over. It’s the beginning of the end of the Great War.

World War Civ 46: Ludendorff’s Last Gamble

The Spring 1918 Offensive

With peace in the East, Germany can finally try to win the war against France in the West, and the clock is ticking before America’s troops make the war unwinnable. In addition to assembling a gigantic army and the largest artillery barrage in history, Ludendorff introduces Storm Troopers and a new tactic of “infiltration” past the defensive strong points to roll up later. But the British manage to retreat instead of breaking, and the final German offensive runs out of steam in August. The tide has turned against Germany. The stalemate is over. It’s the beginning of the end of the Great War.

AER 146: Martial Arts Pedagogy and Politics

If politics is in everything, then what are the politics of martial arts as they’re studied and practiced today? For audiences of this show, it’s not a pretty sight. But Sam from Liberationist MA is trying to do things differently. He joins to talk about his play-based martial arts pedagogy, the world view it’s embedded in, as we make invidious comparisons from our own lives about how we were taught the martial arts. Reposted from the Youtube channel if you caught it there already.

The Political Development of Ta Nehisi Coates

On empathy and historical investigation as research methods

American writer Ta Nehisi Coates has a new book called The Message and has been saying some things that make sense about Palestine, apparently in the book and during his promotion of it. I am not sure what to make of Coates. He’s a writer, he teaches writing, as he’s been reminded on television recently, he’s been given great awards and accolades and publishes in the highest literary circles of America (all of which, he was reminded on CBS, can be taken away). From what I’ve seen (I will read the book but I have not yet) the book is intended for writers. I’ve always had some discomfort with the idea of identifying as a writer. Writing is a tool; you should identify with the reason you’re using the tool. Hassan Nasrallah’s principal activity was preparing and delivering speeches, but I wouldn’t have called him a public speaker. I have made a lot of youtube videos this past year, but I wouldn’t call myself a youtuber. As for the accoladed writers, there seems to be an agreed-upon illusion that their words have some kind of unique power beyond that of normal writers. You might find the same facts (with or without the citations) or the same insights elsewhere, but there is something special about it when it’s given to you by a Writer. I’m not even above that feeling – I like reading the work of an exalted Writer as much as anyone. I just think it’s a shared illusion that we’re all partaking in. And it isn’t a great time to have illusions. Not about this.

Here I’m not writing about the viral CBS interview clip where some pro-Israel TV host threw all the regular talking points at Coates, who answered them with great ease. I want to look instead about his debriefing of that and discussion of the Palestine part of his book with Trevor Noah and co-host Christiana Mbakwe Medina, on  Noah’s podcast. I think some of you may have guessed the part of it that I want to talk about.

Both Noah and Coates say a lot of good things worth listening to in here, for example:

  • Noah points out that no pro-Israel friend of his can argue that Israel *isn’t* an apartheid state

  • Coates points out that there can be no justification for apartheid, and that in trying to justify it, Israel’s defenders admit that they believe there can be justifications for racism, apartheid – and now genocide as well. 

But among these good things, Coates gets to a moment, around minute 14, where he talks about October 7th, and the discussion here pretty well cancels out the good he does elsewhere in the interview. 

He says, “I try to maintain my great horror at October 7th… because human life really matters to me.” A minute later, he continues, asking the rhetorical question: “Is there room in the world… to have genuine genuine horror about what happened on October 7th? And I’m not Palestinian, I’m Ta Nehisi Coates. There’s no reason that I can apprehend to justify anything like that.”

In his recent interview with Middle East Eye, Coates talks about how he writes much better when he can actually go and see for himself. Indeed Trevor Noah commended Coates for going and seeing for himself and bringing back the words after doing so. But Coates didn’t see October 7th. I have seen everything available to the public that happened on October 7th; I have heard descriptions from journalists who attended the Israeli screening of the footage they assembled for the express purpose of trying to create support for genocide.

What happened on October 7th was an early morning raid by trained, disciplined guerrilla forces on the Israeli bases that maintain the siege on Gaza, a raid whose goal was primarily to take military prisoners that could be exchanged for the thousands of Palestinian prisoners that Israel keeps and tortures. Prisoners who, if Israel has its way, will never be free. One group of fighters from the Qassam brigades, Hamas’s armed wing, were surprised to encounter a rave party, the Nova Music Festival, whose location beside an Israeli air force base had only been announced to attendees just before. Israelis trying to flee this music festival were slaughtered from the air by Israeli helicopter gunships. When Qassam fighters infiltrated into the fortified villages that enclose Gaza, Israelis were also slaughtered in these villages by tank fire from the Israeli army who happily killed Israelis for the chance to kill Palestinians – the new rules that Israel lives by, as I’ve discussed in a previous post.

The “great horrors” that circulated as stories after October 7th, about 40 beheaded babies, about rape being used as a weapon of war – turned out to be fabrications, sourced back to a small number of Israelis whose stories fell apart, as Max Blumenthal details in the film  Atrocity Inc. 

Here’s the point: Coates didn’t “go and see” for himself. He doesn’t appear to have done any investigation at all. Instead, he has simply accepted the lies told by the colonizer. Given the importance of analogies in Coates’s writing, he should know that colonizers lie about the people they oppress. He should know the kinds of lies they tell, the nature of atrocity propaganda, and the purpose of it in preparing the public for genocidal violence against the oppressed. How many times has this specific pattern of lies recurred in American history? Where has it led, each time? Coates needs to make this connection. 

When he does make an analogy to American history, Coates tells the story of Nat Turner’s rebellion – and does so also in a way that doesn’t seem to recognize that slavers could lie about what rebellious slaves did. About Nat Turner, Coates says, “this man slaughtered babies in their cribs.” In fact, as I mentioned in our  last tankie therapy session, my first thought when I heard Normal Finkelstein first make this analogy last year (the analogy of October 7th 2023 with Nat Turner’s 1831 rebellion) was that perhaps Nat Turner didn’t commit atrocities either. Having watched the construction of atrocity propaganda in real time this year, it is hard to imagine the slaver society told the truth about Nat Turner’s rebellion in 1831 (by the way  I covered this rebellion in my historical podcast about four years ago now). It is incorrect to rely on a history written by the enslavers about atrocities committed during a slave revolt 100 years ago as analogical evidence that atrocities were committed during a guerrilla operation last year. 

No babies were slaughtered in their cribs on October 7th. No babies were beheaded. There was, according to the Ha’aretz list, one child who was killed by accident in one of the Israeli villages of the Gaza Envelope. The Palestinian Resistance fighters who attacked fortified Israeli bases on that day were not acting out the degradation of their lives (probably neither was Nat Turner). They were enacting a military strategy and doing so according to their (Islamic) military ethics, which do not allow harm to civilians nor sexual violence. If Coates can listen to Israelis, can give them a hearing, he should also be able to give a hearing to the voices of the Resistance: spokespeople, political leaders, intellectuals. I’ll return to that point below, but let me address how Coates made it even worse: 

At 15:48, he says: “I’ve done this thought experiment for myself over and over. Does the degradation and dehumanization of slavery make it so that you can look past something like that? And I think I can accurately imagine that there were enslaved people that said this is too far, I can’t do that. Now here’s the flip side of it. And I haven’t said it out loud. Were I 20 years old, born into Gaza, which is a giant open air jail – if my father is a fisherman and he goes too far out to the sea he might get shot, if my mother picks the olive trees and she gets too close to the walls she might be shot, if my sister has cancer and she needs treatment and if I can’t get the right permit for it she might die? And I grow up under that oppression and that poverty. And the wall comes down. Am I also strong enough or even constructed in such a way where I say, this is too far. I don’t know that I am.”

This thought experiment has nothing to do with reality. Coates has tried to use empathy and imagination but he doesn’t have the factual foundation to get where he is trying to go. It’s true, the conditions in Gaza are like he describes – worse, in fact – but that has not installed in Palestinians a drive to go and commit “great horror”. Palestinians have a drive to be left alone in their land. Palestinians have a drive to study and pursue education. Many Palestinians have a drive to take care of the land in their Mediterranean ecosystem of olive and orange trees. The Gaza-grown, vengeful Ta-Nehisi that Coates is trying to imagine doesn’t exist. The real people weren’t waiting for a chance to get even, or inflict the degradation they’ve suffered on their oppressors. They were waiting for a chance to get their freedom and to get their land back, and they did so in an organized armed struggle, not chaotic violence. There’s no need for this kind of imaginative exercise when the facts are available. 

Immediately after this interview, some cartoonish Israeli writers took this thought experiment and ran with it to defame Coates. By using his imaginative exercise to defame the Palestinian Resistance and by avoiding investigating for himself what actually happened on October 7th, Coates rendered himself defenseless against the pro-Israel lobby’s smears. Coates first decided to believe the lies about “horrors” on October 7th, then said he didn’t know if he had the strength to not commit such horrors. This was all unnecessary: the facts of what happened don’t match his implication and the logic of the Resistance exists entirely outside of the idea of inflicting reciprocal degradation. 

Coates is a writer who uses autobiography and his background is an open book. His father was a Black Panther and the publisher of Black Classic Press, which published many important Black intellectuals. Some of what Coates says on Noah’s podcast suggests that he missed many of the important points that these intellectuals were making. He says that in Israel, he saw “some of the nationalist impulse that I grew up under”, but “taken to the Nth degree.” But Zionism is nothing like Black Nationalism taken to the Nth degree. Zionism is a form of colonialism, and Black Nationalism is an anti-colonial ideology. At 24:45, he says about Zionism:

“I can feel the parallels, the fraternity for it and the sympathy, I understand it. But you see where it goes. And a people who have been repeatedly degraded over the centuries, massacred, killed, chased, ethnically cleansed themselves out of Spain, can go somewhere and create a system of dire inhumanity against other people. That was a challenge for me as a Black person, because I started thinking, what would we be if we had power? What would we do? “

[One day I might return to this historical question of medieval Spain, which I happen to know a lot about – but it’s a huge mess and Coates bringing it in here adds more muddle to the thinking, not less.]

The belief that Coates holds that Black people, in power, would become Zionists, is incorrect. Not because it isn’t humanly possible – of course it is – but because it shows a lack of understanding of what Zionism is. Coates relies too much on the analogy he has made between two things that are much unlike one another – the Black nationalism published by W.P. Coates’s press (John Henrik Clarke, Bobby Seale, Amiri Baraka) – and the Zionism of Herzl and Jabotinsky, of Bill Clinton and of Netanyahu. Zionism, as I’ve documented here in an eight-part series, is an anti-Jewish ideology. And as I’ve documented in my historical podcast,  it was an ideology of its time – and that time was the Scramble for Africa – and that ideology was of European colonization. You can like it or hate it, but Black Nationalism has nothing to do with this. Coates knows this, but it seems to slip through his fingers in his over-empathizing and his over-connecting of these ideologies. 

The tree from which Zionism springs is the Anglo-American colonialism whose settler colonial branches live in Canada, the US, Australia, New Zealand, and whose devastated post-colonies in Asia and Africa continue to pay trillions in tribute (tribute given various names: repatriated profits, brain drain, suppressed wages, interest on debts…) to their former colonial masters. 

The tree from which Black Nationalism springs is the tree of resistance to all of this, and it shares much with other ideologies of national liberation from colonialism around the world. European colonization of the world is a few centuries old and in terms of technological and ideological sophistication (including specifically the deployment of lies) it is unique. When Coates says that it isn’t unique to Zionism but it is a “human problem”, it’s another case of over-empathizing, this time with European colonialism:

“This doesn’t work if you can’t see yourself within Israel and within Zionism. If you think this is just evil people doing some evil thing, you’ve missed it. This started somewhere. Once I started reading the documents about Zionism, on one level, I recognized the colonialist discourse, but the other part was I recognize the yearning.”

But Zionist yearning, for a colony, could not have been more different from Black Nationalist yearning, for liberation. To achieve hegemony over the Jewish community, Zionists had to defeat both religious and secular Jewish traditions and identities. There were Jews who yearned for liberation from European racism, who Coates should empathize with. But they were not Zionists. 

In an article about The Message, one of Coates’s friends said that Coates goes through a very public learning process. He’s approached his study from the wrong direction, starting with Zionist intellectualism and discovering the evils that occur as it’s applied on the ground. For the next phase of the learning process, the Resistance’s intellectuals should be the avenue of approach. As a writer’s writer, how about the late Refaat Alareer? Ghassan Kanafani would be a good one to have on the shelf. Salman Abu Sitta is way underrated. Hassan Nasrallah’s speeches. Abu Obeida’s speeches. Yahya Sinwar’s novel too. Since Coates has already said that he doesn’t care about the awards and accolades, that he wants to be a writer to go into those kinds of places, that’s the direction to head in. More historical investigation. More reading the words of those who never had illusions about Zionism in the first place. 

World War Civ 45: Russia and Germany make peace at Brest-Litovsk

The Bolsheviks had made their revolution promising Peace, Land, and Bread. But peace meant a deal with Germany, which could bring British and French subversion of their nascent revolution. How could Lenin get out of this impossible dilemma? By sending Trotsky to lead the negotiations with Imperial Germany. Did Trotsky go rogue? Was he following Lenin’s directives? Was he playing 5D chess? We conclude: he probably was.

World War Civ 45: Brest-Litovsk

Russia and Germany make peace

The Bolsheviks had made their revolution promising Peace, Land, and Bread. But peace meant a deal with Germany, which could bring British and French subversion of their nascent revolution. How could Lenin get out of this impossible dilemma? By sending Trotsky to lead the negotiations with Imperial Germany. Did Trotsky go rogue? Was he following Lenin’s directives? Was he playing 5D chess? We conclude: he probably was.

World War Civ 44: The Agony of the Allies

It’s 1917. The French are suffering mutinies and the Entente is desperate for a breakthrough anywhere. It’s not to be. Arras, Vimy Ridge, Passchendaele, Cambrai, and Caporetto – hundreds of thousands of men killed and no breakthrough. At the end of the year, the Germans have reason to believe they could win the whole war in the West if they could conclude a peace with the newly Bolshevik Russia…

World War Civ episode 44: The Agony of the Allies

An example episode of our historical podcast

It’s 1917. The French are suffering mutinies and the Entente is desperate for a breakthrough anywhere. It’s not to be. Arras, Vimy Ridge, Passchendaele, Cambrai, and Caporetto – hundreds of thousands of men killed and no breakthrough. At the end of the year, the Germans have reason to believe they could win the whole war in the West if they could conclude a peace with the newly Bolshevik Russia…