The Anti-Empire Project

Now it seems that it really is all over, save for some possibly tragic and desperate acts by the opposition. At a 1:30pm press conference at the Gran Melia hotel, Carter and Gaviria both affirmed that their analysis and results confirmed the preliminary results of the National Electoral Council.

No Evidence, No Evidence, No Evidence

Specifically, Carter said: “After a long process of analysis, we conclude that our results are in agreement with the preliminary results of the Electoral Council.” Gaviria, who very obviously wanted there to be evidence of fraud, seemed full of regret when he said: “We have not encountered any evidence of fraud. If there are any specific claims, we are ready to investigate them… that is why we are here… we are ready to work with the opposition if there is any concrete information. But until now, we have no evidence of any specific cases of fraud.”

Both tried to clear up the difference between fraud and protest. Carter said: “I know that the Coordinadora Democratica is calling for demonstrations, and that is their right in a free society.” Gaviria said: “It is one thing to give your opinion or express doubts, but fraud is another thing.”

It actually gets worse for the opposition. Recall that at 5:30am this morning (the 16th), the opposition announced their own “results” of the referendum: 59% SI, 40% NO, and 8 million votes. Well, it turns out that BEFORE that announcement, according to Carter, and after Carter and Gaviria had seen the preliminary CNE results, Carter, Gaviria, and all five directors of the CNE—including the two, Zamora and Mejia, whose statements the opposition has been using to claim fraud. Everyone agreed that there had been no fraud. Everyone there agreed that the CNE results agreed with their own, including Sumate´s (the opposition electoral organ, whose mission was setting up the referendum) own information which stated that 55% had voted NO. So, after agreeing in a meeting as to the results, they came out publicly to dispute what they had already agreed to. Carter expressed confusion about it all.

This announcement is much more unequivocal than could have been expected. I thought there would be more “doubts” expressed, more talk of “possibilities” of “irregularities”, that kind of thing. But, no. The words “no evidence” came up over and over, not least because of the technical aspects of the system itself. Gaviria said “the system is designed in such a way that it is almost impossible to fake final results.”

Outside the Melia hotel, a small group of a few dozen very unhappy opposition people were demonstrating. I asked them what they thought of Carter`s declaration. They said “Carter has never defended us”, “it was a fraud, they keep saying it was not a fraud but they have to show us the proof that it was not a fraud”, and other arguments of equal quality.

So, now that two has-been presidents, one a repressive war criminal president of Colombia (see 1990-1994), and the other a war criminal president of the US (see East Timor, Afghanistan, etc.) have made their declarations, Venezuelans now know that they can keep their president. It is not that bad, actually—Chavez made it clear that the CNE was the final arbiter all along. But it is equally clear that Carter and the OAS have played a role out of all proportion to the role they should have played. The very fact that we were all waiting for their declaration before relaxing shows that.

Notes on the Final Results, from Jorge Rodriguez of the CNE

And now, the final results are coming in as well, from the CNE. A press conference given by the CNE, shown on VTV, at 3:40pm. Jorge Rodriguez of the CNE mentioned various aspects, with some good quotes. First, the registered voters grew to some 14 million, and more voting stations are clearly needed, and closer to the people, to avoid lineups. The fingerprinting machines did cause delays: but for the most part, yesterday, congestion was similar in parts with fingerprinting machines as those without.

“Never before in Venezuelan history have so many voted. Never before. And certainly not with absolute peace, without any violence.” There were some “dangerous periods”. First, in the morning, the media mentioned that the machines were giving wrong results. “We believe this was a deliberate attempt to delegitimate the process. When we investigated, we found nothing—every time. It is technically impossible.”

Also, it is very dangerous to create matrices of opinion outside of the CNE. Websites started publishing results before Venezuelans had voted. The partisan sites started to declare their triumph – “this is not just dangerous, it is disrespectful to those still voting. Politicians have much to learn from the Venezuelans who voted. We never heard of any NOs attacking YESes in line. Not one.”

“If laws exist, they have to be respected. If not, can create a very dangerous situation. CNE ready to do whatever CD or Maisanta wanted. But only if it is going to calm the country. Not for another excuse.”

The best criticism of the opposition was this: “To say that there was fraud is to say that the CD was complicit in the fraud—it approved of the machines and was present through every part of the process. It is to say that CANTV was complicit in the software….”

“Carter has spoken. OAS has spoken. All have spoken to the transparency of the process. It is barbaric to ask for a recount after their prenouncements. How many meters do we have to go to please opposition, to get the same results?” Answering the claim that the CNE should not have published preliminary results: “how many times did the opposition complain that they wanted rapid results, threatening that they would publish their own results if we did not?”

NO seems to have won in every single state, with some states incredibly close. Even Zulia, the stronghold of the opposition, had NO winning by a slight margin.

http://www.zcommunications.org/the-venezuelan-referendum-ends-by-justin-podur

Continue reading “The Venezuelan Referendum Ends”

President Carraquero of the National Electoral Council announced the preliminary result as of 3:47 am just now (4:10am) with between 94-96% of the results in. The result: 58% NO (4 991 483 million votes) and 42% SI (3 576 517 million votes). In other words, it´s all over, right?

It should be. The Electoral Council, which was perfectly good for everyone involved until now, is no longer good enough for the opposition. They announced just before the preliminary results that they would not accept the results. And now, as folks have said before, all depends on the Carter Center and the OAS. These groups are in frantic negotiations with the Coordinadora Democratica (opposition) right now. Rumour (I´ll confirm as soon as possible) is that Carter and Gaviria of the OAS are fighting. Carter apparently thinks that the vote ought to be accepted. Gaviria believes that some kind of “solution” should be sought in spite of the clear vote. I am having trouble believing in Carter´s insistence on democracy, but for argument´s sake let´s accept that that´s what´s going on. If that is what´s going on, and if Gaviria and the opposition have their way, it will be an abhorrent message from the world to Venezuelans, that they are on their own in trying to defend their democracy and that international bodies have no credibility to tell them anything. This could end up to be the case. But since we waited so many hours for the people to speak, we ought to give these groups a chance to save a minimum of credibility for themselves as well.

UPDATE (5:35am). In case anyone was worried that the opposition was going to do the right thing and respect the Venezuelan vote, Henry Ramos Allup dispelled that notion dramatically this morning in a televised press conference. According to the Coordinadora Democratica´s own figures (not really sure how they were collected, but some way far more reliable than the double-system of the machines), of 8 million votes counted, SI had 59% and NO 40.6%. Ramos said they would be spending today (Monday) gathering evidence to present to the international community.

This claim, without evidence like virtually every other claim of the opposition, gives the Carter Center, OAS, and international press a real choice. Will they respect the vote of the Venezuelans and their electoral authorities, which they have been praising all day, or will they opt for sleazy, evidence-free claims that are designed to sow chaos and undermine progress?

I wish I wasn´t so sure of the answer. (UPDATE: I was wrong! Not for the first time, about Venezuela. Carter and Gaviria stated clearly at a press conference at 1:30pm that they found NO EVIDENCE of fraud (and it was pretty clear Gaviria wanted to find evidence). So, there you have it. Much clearer than I thought.)

Take Two. The dreaded technical difficulties might be coming back. I went to the barrio of La Vega tonight, and just got back (it´s 12:45am on August 16 and the August 15 referendum has become the August 15/16 referendum). This will be the last bulletin before the results come out for real.

La Vega, our guides told me, is one of the oldest parts of Caracas, a barrio of some 300,000 people. Our guides asked us to go there because they wanted to make sure there was some coverage of neglected parts of town where a predominance of pro-Chavez voters and a lack of media attention would be the norm. The rumours are flying fast and furious but I won´t repeat them. Instead, I´ll just tell you what I saw.

We went to a couple of polling stations. The folks who came to the media centre to look for interested journalists talked of very very long lines. But by the time they came to the centre, picked us up, and go us back into La Vega, much had cleared up. The lines were manageable, the work was coming to an end. Elsewhere, long lines had become short lines and many stations had closed. I would imagine that by now the results are being counted and checked. As always, we were allowed freely through the polling stations, to talk to whoever we wanted—witnesses, voters, workers. There were some complaints about the lineups and some about the fingerprint registration, but no complaints about transparency of clarity of the process or the vote.

The other thing that I can tell you is that the celebrations are already on. In La Vega, people are singing, dancing, eating and celebrating in the street as if they knew the NO had won. Same with at Miraflores. There are caravans heading down from the neighbourhoods into the city. Maybe premature? We will know quite soon. Meanwhile, one of the private TV networks is taking this historic and unprecedented moment as an opportunity to show an American film called “Indecent Proposal.” Maybe it´s a keen sense of irony?

Who needs the Venezuelan opposition to criminally announce the results of the referendum in advance when the international press can do so just as well?

Even though the National Electoral Council has just announced (about 8:30pm) that polls will not be closing until midnight because there are so many people still to vote, the Hannah Baldock of the UK Independent has used dubious and unsourced “exit polls” from this morning to present Chavez on the brink of defeat. This is against Venezuelan law, for good reason, as Al Giordano of the Narcosphere wrote earlier tonight (he passed me this link). Has Hannah joined the opposition? Does Hannah want to break laws and contribute to the chaotic and irresponsible media atmosphere? Or did she just want to scoop the rest of the journalistic world? Hard to know. What is easy to know is that this was a piece of criminally irresponsible journalism that the Independent should rectify. It is also very likely wrong. But the point is that we cannot know if it is wrong until the polls are closed and the votes counted.

Speaking of the narcosphere, here is something I prepared for them a few hours back but could not post due to technical difficulties.

Re Greg Flakus´s Voice of America piece on the long lineups

By Justin Podur, narcosphere

Greg Flakus, in his August 15 article on the ongoing recall referendum in Venezuela, laments the fact that there are “There are long lines at polling stations in Venezuela”. These lines could be sinister, Flakus suggests, citing Cesar Gaviria of the OAS: “is very important to have results known as quickly as possible, because, when there is a delay that cannot be easily explained, questions about the process emerge.”

Flakus´s “questions” about the lineups, however, can be “easily explained.” Where Flakus claims “Delays at polling stations have been caused by a lengthy process of identification for each voter that includes a fingerprint scanner”, Jimmy Carter at a press conference 5:20pm said the lineups are caused by higher levels of participation than ever before. Carter also said that the CNE was taking appropriate measures to deal with the situation, closing the polls as late as necessary. He urged voters to be patient, and assured Venezuelans that everyone who wanted to vote would be able to do so regardless of the time. The late closing of the polls, according to Carter, made the avoidance of early announcements of results even more important.

Gaviria himself, Flakus´s source on the possible “questions” that the lineups might cause, said at the same press conference that the patience of the Venezuelan people was amazing. He echoed Carter´s sentiment that everything was going very well, thanks to the work of the CNE and the people of Venezuela.

A last note about the lineups. It is now 5:35pm and reports are that there is no lineup any more at the El Bosque voting station (it looks to me like Flakus took his photo at this SI stronghold). But aporrea.org (a source that is certainly no more biased than the Voice of America) reported earlier this afternoon that the longest lineups and the most suspicious machine glitches were happening in the popular neighbourhoods. (http://www.aporrea.org/dameverbo.php?docid=19513).

Thee was a great deal of advance warning that the opposition would commit violence as a last resort if it looked like it was losing. That has happened, it seems.

The EFE news agency is reporting that 12 people have been wounded and at least 1 killed at a polling station outside of Caracas. The article, like the situation, is confusing. It was a drive by. The one who was killed was hit 8 times. The victims were sent to two different hospitals. The source for all this, apparently is Rafael Briceno, who is the Ambulance chief for Caracas. Witnesses cited in the article say that the killers came by motorcycle.

Also, according to EFE, the opposition is claiming (contary to OAS and carter center) that the CNE is deliberately slowing down the electoral process, and mobilizing its base to come out into the streets “in solidarity with voters”, to bring food and music and help people stay out.

I have just crossed from one end of the city to the other by subway and saw on the streets very long lineups to vote in a popular neighbourhood of the city. The voting is far from over, though a good portion of the results must be in. But the sabotage may already have begun. Things could still end well. But it seems that the opposition already decided not to let the elections and the victory be clean, and let things go by without shedding the blood of Venzuelans. I am reproducing the EFE articles below, for my own records if for no other reason.

ADDENDUM: The new story on the wires is that the death was the result of gang violence, and that there have been 3 other accidental deaths due to soldiers firing their weapons at polling stations. I doubt I´ll be able to follow this up. It did seem to be a classic sort of provocation, but it seems to have dropped off the radar (as of August 16, 1:30am).

VENEZUELA-REFERENDO
Un muerto y 12 heridos en confuso incidente en centro votación
Caracas, 15 ago (EFE).- Uno de los 12 heridos de bala en el confuso incidente registrado hoy en las afueras de un centro de votación rural, cercano a Caracas, recibió 8 disparos, informó a EFE el jefe de Bomberos de la capital, Rafael Briceño.
La víctima, identificada por Briceño como Christopher Córdoba, es uno de los dos heridos más graves en el suceso, en el que también murió una mujer de 28 años.
Córdoba y el otro herido grave, del que no se reveló su identidad, fue trasladado al hospital Domingo Luciani, en el este de Caracas, y ambos fueron operados de urgencia para tratar de salvarles la vida.
El resto de los heridos se encuentran en el hospital Pérez de León, también en el este de la capital, agregó el comandante de los Bomberos, sin especificar su estado de salud.
El suceso, de acuerdo a testigos citados por Briceño, ocurrió sobre las 20.30 GMT en el sector Vuelta del Aguila, en el estado de Miranda, cuando unos desconocidos abrieron fuego desde una moto sobre la cola de votantes de un colegio electoral.
Otras versiones sin confirmar indican que los hechos se debieron a un ajuste de cuentas entre bandas rivales de delincuentes.
El confuso incidente está siendo investigado por la policía política DISIP y por la brigada científica y penalista CIPC, añadió el comandante del cuerpo de Bomberos de Caracas.
Por otra parte, el fiscal general, Isaías Rodríguez, informó por la mañana que una joven de 18 años murió alcanzada por un disparo accidental de un militar asignado al plan de seguridad República en un centro de votación del oeste de Caracas.
Excepto por estos sucesos, la jornada ha transcurrido mayormente de forma pacífica y con una masiva asistencia de electores a los centros de votación.
Unos 14 millones de electores podrán hoy ratificar en las urnas al presidente Hugo Chávez hasta el 10 de enero de 2007 o revocar de inmediato su mandato, tras más de cinco años de gobierno marcados por un agudo enfrentamiento social y político. EFE
gf-ea/esc

—–

VENEZUELA-REFERENDO
Oposición dice que Autoridad Electoral entorpece votación
Caracas, 15 ago (EFE).- Portavoces de la coalición opositora Coordinadora Democrática acusaron a las autoridades electorales de entorpecer el referendo presidencial que hoy se celebra en Venezuela.
El socialdemócrata Henry Ramos, el democristiano César Pérez y el socialista Felipe Mujica dijeron a los periodistas que el Consejo Nacional Electoral (CNE) obstaculizó deliberadamente la votación.
La versión de los representantes de la Coordinadora no coincide con lo expresado por organismos internacionales observadores como la Organización de Estados Americanos (OEA) y el Centro Carter de EEUU, entre otros.
Esos organismos han alabado el trabajo del CNE y han atribuido los retrasos a algunas deficiencias logísticas, que fueron corregidas, y a una masiva presencia de votantes que desbordó todos los pronósticos.
Ramos, secretario del partido Acción Democrática, el segundo más grande del país, dijo que el procedimiento de votación fue “deliberadamente largo y tortuoso”.
Pérez, secretario del partido Copei, se expresó en términos parecidos en tanto que Mujica, presidente del Movimiento al Socialismo (MAS), aseguró que el CNE en lugar de facilitar el voto lo entorpeció.
Los tres expresaron su convicción en que alcanzarán el “objetivo” que se propusieron al pedir la convocatoria del referendo pero no fueron más específicos sobre la naturaleza del “objetivo” por impedirlo las normas fijadas por las autoridades electorales.
Pidieron a sus seguidores que soporten las esperas estoicamente y no deserten por cansancio de las colas.
También exhortaron a quienes ya votaron que acudan a ayudar a los que están en las colas con comida, bebidas, música, juegos como cartas o dominó y otras formas que hagan más llevadera la espera.
Las mesas electorales deberían cerrar a las ocho de la noche (00.00 GMT del lunes) pero todo indica que permanecerán abiertas hasta mucho más tarde, cuando ya no queden votantes a sus puertas.
Jorge Rodríguez, directivo del CNE, ratificó a las 23.00 GMT que el factor principal de retraso en el proceso ha sido la masiva presencia de electores.
Unos 14 millones de venezolanos decidirán hoy si el presidente Hugo Chávez se mantiene en el cargo hasta el 10 de enero de 2007 o debe abandonarlo de inmediato.EFE
rr/eil

Thought I should check in, even though there are no results yet obviously. Indeed, there has been an announcement that the polls are closing 4 hours later than planned—10pm, that is, instead of 6pm. It is going to be a long night.

The private network Globovision is covering it as “REFERENDO REVOCATORIO” (recall referendum). The state channel VTV is covering it as “PARTICIPATION 2004”.

More on all this later, but I went to two neighbourhoods. First, to 23 enero, one of the poor barrios, of 500,000 people, that is solidly NO! It is a place that got some media attention today because Chavez himself voted there (I saw my good friend Juan Forero there again). The people of that barrio have been fighting for social change for decades—one of them gave a very good interview and history that I will post some time soon—and were confident, organized, and serious.

Next stop: El Bosque! Country clubs! Social clubs! SUVs! And a very long lineup of umbrella-holding SI voters. Got a good interview there too, with someone who was every bit as confident as the people of 23 enero. According to her, there were two possibilities: either the opposition will win, or the government will have committed fraud. There seemed to be a lot of SI voters. And it seems to me they will be genuinely stunned if (when) they lose. More on this, too.

As far as procedural things go, there have been some. Carter started by saying this morning that things were going normal. Most polling stations opened late, well after 6am, with long lineups. Some of the registration machines that take fingerprints aren´t working. There have been a few other machine glitches.

But by far the weirdest thing so far has been (published on aporrea.org) that a fake tape recording of the president of the National Electoral Council, Francisco Carrasquero, was discovered. On it, a voice impersonating Carrasquero´s announced that the SI forces got 11 436 086 votes and that thus Chavez was revoked. The real Carrasquero said at a press conference that they are doing an “exhaustive investigation” of this “serious electoral crime”.

If you can read spanish at all, the place to go tonight is aporrea.org. I was in their “control room” yesterday and hope to get back there tonight (I am in the Narconews “control room” now). But aporrea.org is filing dozens of reports every hour, following every irregularity or problem.

You´ll have a full report as soon as the results are in. And maybe before, if anything else happens…

In this room I have had a chance to spend some time looking at other news for the first time since I arrived here. It looks like the US is preparing for a major massacre in Najaf. It is almost as if the US was the vindictive ruler of a global system of domination, punishing one population by smashing through holy sites and civilian areas at the same time as it is (maybe) resigning itself to losing a battle with another population. It is almost as if the US were fighting a two-front oil war… retreating on one front and assaulting on the other. Even if (when) “NO” wins tonight, it will be bitter that one people are winning yet another battle for their self-determination while another is being denied and massacred for fighting for the same thing.

http://www.zcommunications.org/the-calm-before-the-by-justin-podur-1-2

Today is the day before the referendum. Not only is campaigning formally closed, but there is also a law in effect, quite common in Latin America, that no alcohol is to be sold or consumed until well after the referendum. And with good reason, given that both the NO and the SI forces want their followers to be up by 3am and voting by 6am.

The Opposition Plan

Continue reading “The Calm Before the?”

Today is the day before the referendum. Not only is campaigning formally closed, but there is also a law in effect, quite common in Latin America, that no alcohol is to be sold or consumed until well after the referendum. And with good reason, given that both the NO and the SI forces want their followers to be up by 3am and voting by 6am.

The Opposition Plan

One can put together the comments of the various opposition figures {please see the previous entry on the Mendoza press conference} and get a picture of what the opposition plan is. Short of some kind of violent provocation {and there have been warnings of that as well} to try to discredit the whole electoral process, the opposition has signalled repeatedly that it plans to announce the results at 2pm. Then, when the real results are announced after the polls close at 6pm, the opposition will say {assuming that the opposition loses the referendum, which it will if there is not fraud} that its results disagree with the official results and argue that a fraud has occurred. At that point things will depend on the integrity of the Carter Center and the OAS {gulp}. That is not strictly true. There are all kinds of observers here, more media than ever before, so things will depend on the ability of everyone with integrity to get the truth out past all of those who are going to lie about the result. My own suspicion, based on the highly unscientific methods of watching the SI rallies and talking to random people, is that the result will be closer than the NO forces might like, but quite decisive.

If the SI forces claims are then discredited, as they should be, they and the US will just keep the “fraud” card in their hand, waiting for the correlation of forces to change. Then, at some point down the road, if Chavez loses a substantial chunk of support, or the army, or the oil company, they will bring out the claim that the referendum was “fraudulent” when they try to bring him down. This is the way the same kinds of forces used the Haitian elections of 2000 in legitimating the coup that happened there this year. For now, though, it is hard to think of what else they will be able to do.

As for the role the 2pm announcement of the results by the opposition might play, it is again hard to know. It could create some disorder and confusion, but it seems that everyone has been trying to prepare the electorate for it at any rate. This morning in a press conference, the President of the state television channel 8, Vladimir Villegas, had it right. He said “The opposition is announcing that they are going to announce the results tomorrow at 2pm. The polls open at 6am and close at 6pm. How are they going to know the results four hours before the polls close. If they are going to announce it at 2pm, I would invite them to announce the results now! They are not going to know anything then that they do not know now!” And it is that absurd. (For more detail on the opposition plan and strategy, see the piece by Jonah Gindin today on ZNet and venezuelanalysis.com)

Control Rooms

In spite of the absence of campaignings, today is a day of frantic activity. I realize I promised that I would do interviews. And I have met a lot of interesting people with a lot of interest to say. Every single one of them has one response when I ask them for an interview. “Of course! Call me just as soon as the referendum is over!” Fair enough. Indeed, even if the opposition plans some bad business, it is as likely to come immediately after the referendum as it is to come before.

But people are better prepared this time around. If anti imperialists were kicking themselves for not doing more to stop the coup in 2002 (we were) they are trying to learn from their mistakes. I know of at least two alternative media “control rooms” that are being set up. One is by the intrepid NarcoNews team (check them out at narconews.com and the narcosphere blog) and another is organized by aporrea.org. What they have here is a lot like some of the best indymedia centres I have seen at the big anti globalization demonstrations and meetings. Indymedia from many countries are here, rebelion.org, aporrea.org, antiescualidos.com, lots of alternative radio folks from all over Latin America and Europe. They have set up computers, techies, phones, food… people are even staying here. Of course there are all the sensible security precautions… they say they have been hacked already, more than once. The idea of both control rooms is to create a real newsroom where people can complement each others work, where people can check and cross check information (this one has four televisions, each tuned to a different news channel) and complement each others efforts.) If things do get ugly, we have learned from (at least some) of our mistakes and can (hopefully) do better than last time.

The most likely scenario for tomorrow is also the best case scenario. A clean, uneventful day of voting, resulting in a sound victory for the NO forces, and a big party to follow. That is what I would like to be reporting tomorrow. Stay tuned, regardless.

http://www.zcommunications.org/venezuela-florentino-the-devil-and-the-opposition-by-justin-podur

Continue reading “Venezuela:Florentino The Devil And The Opposition”