The Political Development of Ta Nehisi Coates

On empathy and historical investigation as research methods

American writer Ta Nehisi Coates has a new book called The Message and has been saying some things that make sense about Palestine, apparently in the book and during his promotion of it. I am not sure what to make of Coates. He’s a writer, he teaches writing, as he’s been reminded on television recently, he’s been given great awards and accolades and publishes in the highest literary circles of America (all of which, he was reminded on CBS, can be taken away). From what I’ve seen (I will read the book but I have not yet) the book is intended for writers. I’ve always had some discomfort with the idea of identifying as a writer. Writing is a tool; you should identify with the reason you’re using the tool. Hassan Nasrallah’s principal activity was preparing and delivering speeches, but I wouldn’t have called him a public speaker. I have made a lot of youtube videos this past year, but I wouldn’t call myself a youtuber. As for the accoladed writers, there seems to be an agreed-upon illusion that their words have some kind of unique power beyond that of normal writers. You might find the same facts (with or without the citations) or the same insights elsewhere, but there is something special about it when it’s given to you by a Writer. I’m not even above that feeling – I like reading the work of an exalted Writer as much as anyone. I just think it’s a shared illusion that we’re all partaking in. And it isn’t a great time to have illusions. Not about this.

Here I’m not writing about the viral CBS interview clip where some pro-Israel TV host threw all the regular talking points at Coates, who answered them with great ease. I want to look instead about his debriefing of that and discussion of the Palestine part of his book with Trevor Noah and co-host Christiana Mbakwe Medina, on  Noah’s podcast. I think some of you may have guessed the part of it that I want to talk about.

Both Noah and Coates say a lot of good things worth listening to in here, for example:

  • Noah points out that no pro-Israel friend of his can argue that Israel *isn’t* an apartheid state

  • Coates points out that there can be no justification for apartheid, and that in trying to justify it, Israel’s defenders admit that they believe there can be justifications for racism, apartheid – and now genocide as well. 

But among these good things, Coates gets to a moment, around minute 14, where he talks about October 7th, and the discussion here pretty well cancels out the good he does elsewhere in the interview. 

He says, “I try to maintain my great horror at October 7th… because human life really matters to me.” A minute later, he continues, asking the rhetorical question: “Is there room in the world… to have genuine genuine horror about what happened on October 7th? And I’m not Palestinian, I’m Ta Nehisi Coates. There’s no reason that I can apprehend to justify anything like that.”

In his recent interview with Middle East Eye, Coates talks about how he writes much better when he can actually go and see for himself. Indeed Trevor Noah commended Coates for going and seeing for himself and bringing back the words after doing so. But Coates didn’t see October 7th. I have seen everything available to the public that happened on October 7th; I have heard descriptions from journalists who attended the Israeli screening of the footage they assembled for the express purpose of trying to create support for genocide.

What happened on October 7th was an early morning raid by trained, disciplined guerrilla forces on the Israeli bases that maintain the siege on Gaza, a raid whose goal was primarily to take military prisoners that could be exchanged for the thousands of Palestinian prisoners that Israel keeps and tortures. Prisoners who, if Israel has its way, will never be free. One group of fighters from the Qassam brigades, Hamas’s armed wing, were surprised to encounter a rave party, the Nova Music Festival, whose location beside an Israeli air force base had only been announced to attendees just before. Israelis trying to flee this music festival were slaughtered from the air by Israeli helicopter gunships. When Qassam fighters infiltrated into the fortified villages that enclose Gaza, Israelis were also slaughtered in these villages by tank fire from the Israeli army who happily killed Israelis for the chance to kill Palestinians – the new rules that Israel lives by, as I’ve discussed in a previous post.

The “great horrors” that circulated as stories after October 7th, about 40 beheaded babies, about rape being used as a weapon of war – turned out to be fabrications, sourced back to a small number of Israelis whose stories fell apart, as Max Blumenthal details in the film  Atrocity Inc. 

Here’s the point: Coates didn’t “go and see” for himself. He doesn’t appear to have done any investigation at all. Instead, he has simply accepted the lies told by the colonizer. Given the importance of analogies in Coates’s writing, he should know that colonizers lie about the people they oppress. He should know the kinds of lies they tell, the nature of atrocity propaganda, and the purpose of it in preparing the public for genocidal violence against the oppressed. How many times has this specific pattern of lies recurred in American history? Where has it led, each time? Coates needs to make this connection. 

When he does make an analogy to American history, Coates tells the story of Nat Turner’s rebellion – and does so also in a way that doesn’t seem to recognize that slavers could lie about what rebellious slaves did. About Nat Turner, Coates says, “this man slaughtered babies in their cribs.” In fact, as I mentioned in our  last tankie therapy session, my first thought when I heard Normal Finkelstein first make this analogy last year (the analogy of October 7th 2023 with Nat Turner’s 1831 rebellion) was that perhaps Nat Turner didn’t commit atrocities either. Having watched the construction of atrocity propaganda in real time this year, it is hard to imagine the slaver society told the truth about Nat Turner’s rebellion in 1831 (by the way  I covered this rebellion in my historical podcast about four years ago now). It is incorrect to rely on a history written by the enslavers about atrocities committed during a slave revolt 100 years ago as analogical evidence that atrocities were committed during a guerrilla operation last year. 

No babies were slaughtered in their cribs on October 7th. No babies were beheaded. There was, according to the Ha’aretz list, one child who was killed by accident in one of the Israeli villages of the Gaza Envelope. The Palestinian Resistance fighters who attacked fortified Israeli bases on that day were not acting out the degradation of their lives (probably neither was Nat Turner). They were enacting a military strategy and doing so according to their (Islamic) military ethics, which do not allow harm to civilians nor sexual violence. If Coates can listen to Israelis, can give them a hearing, he should also be able to give a hearing to the voices of the Resistance: spokespeople, political leaders, intellectuals. I’ll return to that point below, but let me address how Coates made it even worse: 

At 15:48, he says: “I’ve done this thought experiment for myself over and over. Does the degradation and dehumanization of slavery make it so that you can look past something like that? And I think I can accurately imagine that there were enslaved people that said this is too far, I can’t do that. Now here’s the flip side of it. And I haven’t said it out loud. Were I 20 years old, born into Gaza, which is a giant open air jail – if my father is a fisherman and he goes too far out to the sea he might get shot, if my mother picks the olive trees and she gets too close to the walls she might be shot, if my sister has cancer and she needs treatment and if I can’t get the right permit for it she might die? And I grow up under that oppression and that poverty. And the wall comes down. Am I also strong enough or even constructed in such a way where I say, this is too far. I don’t know that I am.”

This thought experiment has nothing to do with reality. Coates has tried to use empathy and imagination but he doesn’t have the factual foundation to get where he is trying to go. It’s true, the conditions in Gaza are like he describes – worse, in fact – but that has not installed in Palestinians a drive to go and commit “great horror”. Palestinians have a drive to be left alone in their land. Palestinians have a drive to study and pursue education. Many Palestinians have a drive to take care of the land in their Mediterranean ecosystem of olive and orange trees. The Gaza-grown, vengeful Ta-Nehisi that Coates is trying to imagine doesn’t exist. The real people weren’t waiting for a chance to get even, or inflict the degradation they’ve suffered on their oppressors. They were waiting for a chance to get their freedom and to get their land back, and they did so in an organized armed struggle, not chaotic violence. There’s no need for this kind of imaginative exercise when the facts are available. 

Immediately after this interview, some cartoonish Israeli writers took this thought experiment and ran with it to defame Coates. By using his imaginative exercise to defame the Palestinian Resistance and by avoiding investigating for himself what actually happened on October 7th, Coates rendered himself defenseless against the pro-Israel lobby’s smears. Coates first decided to believe the lies about “horrors” on October 7th, then said he didn’t know if he had the strength to not commit such horrors. This was all unnecessary: the facts of what happened don’t match his implication and the logic of the Resistance exists entirely outside of the idea of inflicting reciprocal degradation. 

Coates is a writer who uses autobiography and his background is an open book. His father was a Black Panther and the publisher of Black Classic Press, which published many important Black intellectuals. Some of what Coates says on Noah’s podcast suggests that he missed many of the important points that these intellectuals were making. He says that in Israel, he saw “some of the nationalist impulse that I grew up under”, but “taken to the Nth degree.” But Zionism is nothing like Black Nationalism taken to the Nth degree. Zionism is a form of colonialism, and Black Nationalism is an anti-colonial ideology. At 24:45, he says about Zionism:

“I can feel the parallels, the fraternity for it and the sympathy, I understand it. But you see where it goes. And a people who have been repeatedly degraded over the centuries, massacred, killed, chased, ethnically cleansed themselves out of Spain, can go somewhere and create a system of dire inhumanity against other people. That was a challenge for me as a Black person, because I started thinking, what would we be if we had power? What would we do? “

[One day I might return to this historical question of medieval Spain, which I happen to know a lot about – but it’s a huge mess and Coates bringing it in here adds more muddle to the thinking, not less.]

The belief that Coates holds that Black people, in power, would become Zionists, is incorrect. Not because it isn’t humanly possible – of course it is – but because it shows a lack of understanding of what Zionism is. Coates relies too much on the analogy he has made between two things that are much unlike one another – the Black nationalism published by W.P. Coates’s press (John Henrik Clarke, Bobby Seale, Amiri Baraka) – and the Zionism of Herzl and Jabotinsky, of Bill Clinton and of Netanyahu. Zionism, as I’ve documented here in an eight-part series, is an anti-Jewish ideology. And as I’ve documented in my historical podcast,  it was an ideology of its time – and that time was the Scramble for Africa – and that ideology was of European colonization. You can like it or hate it, but Black Nationalism has nothing to do with this. Coates knows this, but it seems to slip through his fingers in his over-empathizing and his over-connecting of these ideologies. 

The tree from which Zionism springs is the Anglo-American colonialism whose settler colonial branches live in Canada, the US, Australia, New Zealand, and whose devastated post-colonies in Asia and Africa continue to pay trillions in tribute (tribute given various names: repatriated profits, brain drain, suppressed wages, interest on debts…) to their former colonial masters. 

The tree from which Black Nationalism springs is the tree of resistance to all of this, and it shares much with other ideologies of national liberation from colonialism around the world. European colonization of the world is a few centuries old and in terms of technological and ideological sophistication (including specifically the deployment of lies) it is unique. When Coates says that it isn’t unique to Zionism but it is a “human problem”, it’s another case of over-empathizing, this time with European colonialism:

“This doesn’t work if you can’t see yourself within Israel and within Zionism. If you think this is just evil people doing some evil thing, you’ve missed it. This started somewhere. Once I started reading the documents about Zionism, on one level, I recognized the colonialist discourse, but the other part was I recognize the yearning.”

But Zionist yearning, for a colony, could not have been more different from Black Nationalist yearning, for liberation. To achieve hegemony over the Jewish community, Zionists had to defeat both religious and secular Jewish traditions and identities. There were Jews who yearned for liberation from European racism, who Coates should empathize with. But they were not Zionists. 

In an article about The Message, one of Coates’s friends said that Coates goes through a very public learning process. He’s approached his study from the wrong direction, starting with Zionist intellectualism and discovering the evils that occur as it’s applied on the ground. For the next phase of the learning process, the Resistance’s intellectuals should be the avenue of approach. As a writer’s writer, how about the late Refaat Alareer? Ghassan Kanafani would be a good one to have on the shelf. Salman Abu Sitta is way underrated. Hassan Nasrallah’s speeches. Abu Obeida’s speeches. Yahya Sinwar’s novel too. Since Coates has already said that he doesn’t care about the awards and accolades, that he wants to be a writer to go into those kinds of places, that’s the direction to head in. More historical investigation. More reading the words of those who never had illusions about Zionism in the first place. 

World War Civ 45: Russia and Germany make peace at Brest-Litovsk

The Bolsheviks had made their revolution promising Peace, Land, and Bread. But peace meant a deal with Germany, which could bring British and French subversion of their nascent revolution. How could Lenin get out of this impossible dilemma? By sending Trotsky to lead the negotiations with Imperial Germany. Did Trotsky go rogue? Was he following Lenin’s directives? Was he playing 5D chess? We conclude: he probably was.

World War Civ 45: Brest-Litovsk

Russia and Germany make peace

The Bolsheviks had made their revolution promising Peace, Land, and Bread. But peace meant a deal with Germany, which could bring British and French subversion of their nascent revolution. How could Lenin get out of this impossible dilemma? By sending Trotsky to lead the negotiations with Imperial Germany. Did Trotsky go rogue? Was he following Lenin’s directives? Was he playing 5D chess? We conclude: he probably was.

World War Civ 44: The Agony of the Allies

It’s 1917. The French are suffering mutinies and the Entente is desperate for a breakthrough anywhere. It’s not to be. Arras, Vimy Ridge, Passchendaele, Cambrai, and Caporetto – hundreds of thousands of men killed and no breakthrough. At the end of the year, the Germans have reason to believe they could win the whole war in the West if they could conclude a peace with the newly Bolshevik Russia…

World War Civ episode 44: The Agony of the Allies

An example episode of our historical podcast

It’s 1917. The French are suffering mutinies and the Entente is desperate for a breakthrough anywhere. It’s not to be. Arras, Vimy Ridge, Passchendaele, Cambrai, and Caporetto – hundreds of thousands of men killed and no breakthrough. At the end of the year, the Germans have reason to believe they could win the whole war in the West if they could conclude a peace with the newly Bolshevik Russia…

In this world of AI, lots of people still wake up and choose to do genocide

They’re not worth your time.

Reading about Meta’s Israel Policy chief the other day reminded me that there are real human racist decisions without which “algorithmic suppression” cannot happen. We are deceived by the idea that our screens are controlled by “algorithms”. Actually, they’re controlled by racists.

Tech executives working with genocidal governments decide which news items we can see on our screens: news editors decide what those items contain. CBC policy, BBC policy, and a revolving door between the Israeli military and American journalism, as Jeremy Scahill mentioned.

That’s why I never saw the point of the supposedly groundbreaking stories about Lavender AI or the Where’s Daddy algorithm for killing people in Gaza. Really? Is an algorithm driving the bulldozer over hundreds of people? Is an algorithm dressing up in dead women’s underwear, playing with dead children’s toys, and taking photos for dating sites?

On today’s EI Livestream, Jon showed some aerial imagery from Rafah of before and after.

It’s not serious to think that any intelligence, artificial or otherwise, was applied in doing “targeting” that led to this destruction. We are talking about how many multiples of the Hiroshima nuclear holocaust’s worth of ordinance have been dropped on Gaza at this point (I think it’s around 4x now and counting). There’s no intelligent algorithm needed, only the sheer depravity to take the decision, the American bombs to drop, and the American planes to deliver them.


Well, that’s not all that’s needed. Because in north Gaza right now it’s a very intimate, hands on holocaust. In the Sde Teiman torture / death camp, it’s a hands on holocaust.

Image

And according to a CNN story and an Israeli media story this past week (the latter written up in the Cradle), doing the genocide is driving the perpetrators crazy – so crazy that they can’t even talk about what they did in direct language, even in the expose. Instead of talking about the trauma of what they did, they talk about what they saw. Instead of talking about what they’ve become, they talk about being depressed and unmotivated. Their army psychologist tries to help them “normalize” the atrocities, but the subject of the CNN story killed himself. Can human compartmentalization be so total that you can commit mass murder and then retain the sense of the preciousness of life that you need to have relationships? Can racial supremacy really get you that far? It might not.


It’s a word I heard my whole life but I only bothered looking it up a few years ago: shibboleth, meaning a word that distinguishes one group from another. Speak for a few seconds and I’ll know from just a few words whether you’re pro- or anti-genocide.

Anti-genocide shibboleths include using the word “genocide” to describe what Israel is doing; using the word “resistance” to describe the people fighting Israel; using the word “martyr” to describe someone Israel has killed.

Pro-genocide shibboleths include calling the victims “terrorists”, phrases like “Hamas embeds in civilian areas”, “Hamas uses human shields”, and repeating the lies about October 7th.

I wrote last year that as far as the pro-genocide and anti-genocide sides go, that as they reject our (facts) and we reject their (lies), that soon “there will be no reason to talk to one another and no desire on either side to do so.” We’re pretty nearly there – not sure about you but I get less and less from watching anti-genocide people go on debate platforms to have it out with the genocidals (usually with a genocidal or fake friend of the anti-genocide movement hosting).

It’s good to keep track of these shibboleths. Knowing them can help: on the anti-genocide side we need to learn to find each other quickly and recognize who’s a waste of time. There isn’t any time to waste. Every day that our efforts fail carries an intolerable cost.

Teaching by killing

On the messages sent between occupier and Resistance

Over the past year I have tried to focus on the military question in the expanding war / genocide the US / Israel has been waging on the Palestinians, Syrians, Lebanese, Yemenis, and Iranians. As figures from the Resistance have said and reiterated, the issue will be decided on the battlefield. And although struggle in all these areas has a role to play, the issue also won’t be decided in the feelings of the oppressor communities nor even in Western genocidal media, campuses or streets. Military affairs require extensive study, encompassing the particulars of weapons systems to topography and maps, to supply chains and logistics, to propaganda and morale. History is always the principal tool, but used with caution: the future is different from the past and the present is maximally dynamic. 

The quintessential Western military theorist, von Clausewitz, the subject of a previous post of mine, described war as an extension of politics. Politics involves communication between enemies, and so does war. 

Israel, and following it the whole West, has transformed itself over the course of the year. It presents itself as a new and different kind of opponent. All year I have wondered about the long-term consequences of such a voluntary self-transformation. Let us now focus on the image Israel is trying to project, how it communicates that new image, and how this will ultimately compel the Resistance to transform as well. 

If you’ve followed the utterances of genocidal Western elites or of Israelis, you’ll hear a lot of pedagogical language. “The Yemenis are about to learn why we don’t have free healthcare”, said one memorable tweet. “We will teach them a harsh lesson,” a repeated theme. But what exactly is the lesson? If you were to ask an Israel advocate, they would say probably that the lesson is “don’t mess with Israel”, as Israeli bots like to add under anti-genocide posts on social media. But the strategic lesson Israel seeks to teach its victims is a bit longer. If it could be spelled out, it would be more like: We can do whatever we like to you, and if you resist we will make it even worse for you. That there are unimaginable punishments in store for those who resist is the most important lesson the oppressor, the abuser, wants to teach. 

In his speech on the anniversary of al-Aqsa flood, the spokesman for Hamas’s armed wing, the Qassam brigades, Abu Obeida, intimated that the operation of Oct 7/23 was a pre-emption against an Israeli plan against the al-Aqsa mosque, a pre-emption of an Israeli plan to advance the ethnic cleansing of the Palestinians. The arrival to power in Israel of the Kahanist settler movement would give credence to this line of thinking.

Abu Obeida’s speech declared an understanding of Israel to “only understand the language of power”.

If the Oct 7/23 raid was indeed a pre-emption, it explains why the Israelis were so ready for October 7/23 in every way but defense. While they didn’t repel the raid, they managed to deploy their helicopters and ground forces to kill hundreds of Israelis to prevent them from becoming captives that might then be tradeable for thousands of Palestinian prisoners, in a “mass Hannibal” event. Israel was prepared to destroy houses full of Israelis in the kibbutzes. This is one of the messages: Israelis would die so that Palestinians could remain imprisoned, Israelis would die so that Palestinians could be killed. Israelis are willing to die for the sake of imprisoning and killing Palestinians. 

Israel and its advocates were ready with a package of lies about atrocity crimes, lies that people who knew the dynamics of the conflict and its antagonists instantly recognized as such and fairly quickly proved their case – not that it mattered for Western media and politicians who repeat the same lies a year later. The specific lies about atrocities against children and lies about sexual violence are more than just standard colonial tropes. The point of the lies is a deep one. Morale is the key to the anti-colonial struggle. The preparation and propagation of lies about atrocity crimes were designed to make supporters of the struggle ashamed. To make the operation of October 7th a shameful operation. To sap the elation of courageous fighters entering their homelands for the first time and successfully taking the fight to their invader, and instead force supporters to defend against accusations of the worst crimes. Israel has conducted several successful genocidal operations over the year, but the atrocity propaganda operation is one of its most successful. And here is another message Israel sends its victims: We can turn your victories into shame, because we control how the world sees you. The goal is both demoralization and isolation of the Resistance’s cause from friends and allies who are silenced by the viciousness of the lies. 

After massacring Israelis and preparing the full package of atrocity propaganda, Israel quickly moved into genocide mode, announcing intent in advance and then proceeding to impose food, water, and power blockades, methodically destroy Gaza’s health care system, hospital by hospital, while targeting children and boasting about it to the world. The lies they told to justify these massacres – of human shields, of command centers under hospitals and schools, etc. – were never meant to be believed. Their target was the oppressed: We can lie about you and we will be believed, not you. 

Israel was so ready with the whole genocide package that some came to believe that the Israelis knew about the Oct 7/23 attack and allowed it to happen. I’m not among them: I think Israel was ready with an accelerated genocide plan because Israel has always been ready with an accelerated genocide plan. Israel came into existence in 1948 through an accelerated genocide plan, and everything it has done since has been to add more and more American technology to the unfolding of that original plan.

Israeli strategy is open-ended and opportunistic: grab what is possible. If limits are hit, wait for the next opportunity – or force one. Israel made a plan to force the people of Gaza into Egypt’s Sinai (and then occupy it, of course) and discarded it when Egypt demurred. Israel has enumerated many plans for the post-war occupation of Gaza that assume they’ve won the war and defeated Hamas. More can be grabbed when the oppressed are demoralized than when they are hopeful. This explains the message sent by the revelling in atrocity – dressing up in dead women’s underwear and playing with dead children’s toys, demolishing universities and mosques, etc. You have suffered so much because you resisted. This destruction is your fault. 

This last message, the abuser’s look what you made me do, is Israel’s most important one for the subjugation of the Palestinians (and now Lebanese, Syrians, Yemenis, Iranians…). The total destruction is spun as the victim’s fault for the logic of subjugation, analogous to the way Resistance successes are spun as atrocity crimes to try to achieve the isolation of the Resistance. Destruction and lies, subjugation and isolation. These are the messages sent by the colonial power to those who would resist. 

Adapting to the colonizer’s classroom

Long term, subjugation is a pipe dream. One of the most spectacular projects of colonization (which the early Zionists tried to participate in) was the Scramble for Africa, when all the Great Powers of the 19th century – far more powerful in relative terms than they are now – got together to colonize the immense continent of Africa. They had a formal meeting, the Berlin Conference, in 1884 and had rolled up most of the continent within a couple of decades, killing millions of Africans in the process and during the colonialism that followed. Africans threw most of them out by the early 1960s. Africa expelled the invaders even though their leaders were murdered; even though their people were displaced and genocided, imprisoned and tortured; even though they lost most of the battles they fought with their technologically overpowered colonizers. Faced with the look what you made me do carnage, decolonizers put their heads down and kept fighting. Faced with the 19th century version of atrocity lies, the claims that they were savages, not ready for self-government, two-legged beasts, racial inferiors etc., decolonizers once again put their heads down and kept fighting. 

In the current war, the anticolonial resistance has actually challenged Western media and narrative control of the colonial power – something the 20th century decolonizers hardly even tried to do. The armed resistance has also gone beyond trying to survive (win or lose) until the colonizer has to leave. Instead it has tried to impose a different “equation” on Israel. The Resistance always talks about “the equation.” Besides the escalation ladder, the equation is the most pervasive metaphor used to describe the battle with Israel. 

Trying to take Israeli prisoners to exchange for Palestinian prisoners was an attempt at creating an equation, one that had freed many Palestinian prisoners in the past, and one that could equal freeing all Palestinian prisoners if the calculation was correct. This is the equation Israel was trying to cancel through the formalization of the Hannibal doctrine: the willingness to kill Israelis before, during, and after capture, to make sure Palestinian prisoners remained captive and hopeless.

Creating armies and Indigenous arms industries that could challenge and defeat Israeli ground forces was an attempt at creating an equation, one that the Resistance hoped could deter Israel. Once the message was firmly sent that Resistance ground forces could not be defeated by the Israeli army, there could be talk of a long-term ceasefire that was not on the basis of subjugation. Israel is trying to cancel this equation in two ways: by showing willingness to send the Israeli army in again and again and use media strategy to claim victory even if there wasn’t any on the ground; and use their superior air force to commit genocide from the air, returning to the message of look what you made me do. 

Open equations

Several equations remain open. 

In 2012, Nasrallah promised a yet new equation: if Israel again destroyed Beirut from the air the way they had done in 2006, Hezbollah had missile capabilities to do the same to Israeli cities. In 2024 Israel has set out to test whether this is the case, by assassinating Nasrallah and bombing Beirut exactly as Nasrallah promised would bring the destruction of Haifa. Haifa still stands, but the war is just starting. 

In 2023, Ansarallah in Yemen announced that they would be blockading Israel and attacking any ships that tried to go to Israel for any reason, until Israel ends the genocide and the blockade on Gaza. The US sent their Navy to try to get Yemen to back down, which they did not. The US, UK, and Israel have bombed Yemen many times over the year. Each time Yemen emerged to resume their blockade and their attacks on Israeli shipping and the US navy. Israel has announced that it wants to assassinate Yemen’s leaders; Yemen announced that they have implemented new security measures… and resumed launching missiles and drones, including on Tel Aviv. 

In April 2023, Iran attacked Israel with a series of drones and missiles after Israel attacked the Iranian consulate in Syria. In October 2024, Iran attacked Israel again, after Israel assassinated Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh and Hizbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah. Israel has promised that it will attack Iran, and Iran has promised it will attack Israel again if that happens. If there’s an equation here, no one knows the variables yet. 

In addition to the above three open equations, to repeat the other communications so far:

Israel tries to tell the Palestinians that resistance is futile. The Palestinians do October 7/23. Israelis claims the story of October 7th and paints the event as an atrocity crime to isolate Palestinians from allies and demoralize them through a demonstration of media domination and Western message discipline. 

Israel commits aerial genocide to show Palestinians and now Lebanese that they should submit to Israel’s will. Resistance ground forces fight to show that they can keep fighting as long as it takes. 

Israel takes thousands of Palestinians prisoner and tortures them to try to demoralize and subjugate the nation. Palestinians take Israeli prisoners to try to get an exchange. Israel responds by showing a willingness to kill Israeli prisoners rather than let an exchange happen. 

Another Resistance message that would confound Westerners if they knew (which they don’t) is their adherence to the rules of war as they understand them. Hizbollah and Iran both conducted missile strikes which they said were revenge for assassinations and massacres, revenge that inflicted almost no casualties. While Qassam in Gaza has fired on attack helicopters with shoulder-launched missiles, they have not fired on medical evacuation helicopters, content to watch and film them. Despite the most daring campaign of lies about October 7th, returned Israeli hostages have reported that the Resistance did not abuse them and repeatedly told them “we are Muslims, no harm will come to you” – the same phrase that Ansarallah told the crew of the Israeli ship (Galaxy Leader) when they took it over and sailed it to Yemen last year. 

Westerners assume Resistance captives are abused like Israeli prisoners are.

This message seems to be: No matter how low you sink, we will not abandon our (Islamic) principles of fighting honorably. Perhaps Israel will succeed in eliminating the honorable warriors and Westernizing the next generation, one day to face an opponent more like themselves. From the Resistance perspective, there are probably two reasons they stick to their beliefs: first, because they draw their strength from the same place that these beliefs come from; and second, perhaps, because they view themselves as the future government of all of Palestine, and are fighting the war on the same principles with which they wish to rule. 

An Israeli medevac helicopter, coolly observed from the camera of a Resistance fighter.

What happens in Year 2?

As the Resistance has tried to drill the lesson that aerial destruction will not defeat us on the ground, Israel has tried to drill the same lesson from a different perspective: repeatedly defeating Israel on the ground will not protect Palestinian and Lebanese civilians from aerial genocide. Nasrallah’s 2012 deterrence formula, that the destruction of Lebanon’s cities will lead to the destruction of Israel’s cities, has been taken as a challenge by Israel, which is forcing Nasrallah’s successors to either follow through on the threat or accept that nothing can stop Israel from committing genocide safely from afar.  

As Israel drills the lesson that we will not be deterred regardless of military casualties, it is arguing that it will not make concessions, not negotiate, and will continue war while it has the ability to do so. The Resistance took prisoners and established military forces towards a long-term ceasefire with a prisoner exchange. Israel’s reply: while Israel exists and while the US is based there, there will be genocide against the peoples of the region. The Resistance did not believe in Year 1 that conditions were right for bringing matters to a decision like this – the most statements by the Ayatollah and by Abu Obeida suggest that the Resistance has come to realize that the US/Israelis believe they can genocide to victory.

The Ayatollah said “when they finish with one country, they move on to the next.” 

As Israel has drilled the lesson that we would rather kill our own people than let them be exchanged for Palestinian prisoners, the only way of freeing the Palestinian prisoners without an exchange is the Khiam model (when Hizbollah drove the Israeli occupation out of southern Lebanon in 2000 and liberated the prisoners by liberating the prison). 

As Israel has drilled the message that we have the narrative mastery to tell your story including whatever lies we wish, the Resistance has made strong efforts on the war propaganda front through videos that depict their continuing capability and ability to inflict losses on the ground, as the unarmed resistance challenges the lies using whatever media are available through censors and monopoly control. This, too, is an open equation. The truth doesn’t always prevail, and we don’t know whether it will prevail here. All we can do is tell it. 

Israel is still planning to attack Iran and dramatic events are certain to occur in the coming days. Can the Resistance win? Nasrallah said that war is like this – one day for the enemy, one day for you. The US and Israel could assassinate even more people, Israel’s army could collapse and be backfilled by the Americans directly. Maybe they’ll blow up the world. 

Let’s suppose they don’t, since there’s not much point in continuing this post if they do.  

Suppose they don’t and that they win the war, somehow destroying Hizbollah in the mountains of Lebanon, completing the genocide and starving the fighters of Hamas to death, cleansing the Palestinians of the West Bank to Jordan, destroying Iran’s missile abilities, crushing Iraq, perhaps miring Yemen and Syria in fratricidal wars? Then Israel will have bought itself a decade or two of tranquility to dance again in the ashes. And in a generation, a new war, in a totally different geopolitical and technological world than today’s, with foes that make it long for the enemies of today, who were foolish enough to think they could force a Western enemy committed to genocide and racism to fight with reason and honor.