[Published on ZNet: http://www.zcommunications.org/znet/viewArticle/16296. Updated Jan 29/08.)
Category: Venezuela Coups
Venezuela’s Constitutional Reform Fails (For Now)
http://www.zcommunications.org/venezuelas-constitutional-reform-fails-for-now-by-justin-podur
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Chavez’s Proposal Fails – but don’t despair
The Constitutional Reform referendum in Venezuela has failed, and Chavez, unlike the Venezuelan opposition, gracefully accepted the defeat. I know that a lot of people are disappointed, but I think there are some very good things that can come out of this.
Before I get into that, the results. “No” got 50.7% (4 504 351), “Yes” got 49.2% (4 159 392) votes. Abstention was very high, at 44.11%. I got these results from El Tiempo, the Colombian newspaper, and they come from when there were 97% of the votes counted.
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Venezuela Radio en Vivo
It’s late, I’m doing my usual ZNet editing routine, and I want to write something before the night is through. Probably too ambitious. But at the very least I can post this, what looks like an excellent and important project covering the upcoming referendum in Venezuela, something on which there will be abundant misinformation and on which solid information will be important.
Venezuela radio en vivo has some credible people involved and I think it might be a source of such solid information. Check it out.
The King tells Chavez to shut up… and more
Adventures at the Ibero-American summit of leaders. Chavez was talking about how the Spanish right-wing including the prime minister at the time, Jose Maria Aznar, supported the coup against his government in 2002. He called Aznar a “fascist”, and the King of Spain said to him: “Why don’t you shut up?” Then Bachelet of Chile tried to moderate while Zapatero, Spain’s current prime minister, told Chavez that Aznar had been elected and deserves respect, even though he (Zapatero) doesn’t agree with him. Ortega of Nicaragua spoke in Chavez’s defense. Reflections about the symbolism of that little moment are left to the reader.
On to more serious business – the humanitarian accord between the Colombian government and the FARC guerrillas, which was the subject of a long meeting between Chavez and Colombia’s president Uribe at the Ibero-American summit.
Recap: The FARC are asking for the government to withdraw from two zones and leave them to FARC control and release 500 prisoners in exchange for 45 prisoners who had been kidnapped by FARC, mostly civilians. Last night I had the chance to hang out with Colombian journalist Hollman Morris, a pretty-well informed fellow who is in North America to receive an award from Human Rights Watch, and he thinks the deal is likely to go through, because Venezuela, France, and the US are all supportive. I suggested that US support could be fickle and withdrawn at any point on the old “don’t negotiate with terrorists” argument. But Hollman didn’t think that’s the way the wind is blowing.
One important Colombian in the humanitarian accord is senator Piedad Cordoba, who was important back in 2003 in defeating Uribe’s referendum. She revealed the other day that shortly after she met with FARC leader Raul Reyes, the Colombian Army attacked and almost killed the guerrilla leader. Uribe told the press at the Ibero-American summit that “actions against the guerrillas will continue irrespective of their meetings with senator Cordoba”.
The governments and FARC are being sketchy about the details of the humanitarian accord and the ongoing negotiations in order to give themselves room to negotiate, obviously. But it could happen…
More on the FARC-Venezuela-Colombia humanitarian negotiation
The ‘senior FARC official’ in Venezuela, Rodrigo Granda, said that the FARC would be providing ‘proof of life’ on its kidnapped prisoners, including Ingrid Betancourt, the green presidential candidate who was kidnapped many years ago, to the Venezuelan (and therefore Colombian) governments. He also said that FARC’s supreme commander, Manuel Marulanda, is interested in meeting Chavez to discuss the possibility that Venezuela could mediate more profound negotiations between the Colombian government and FARC, but awaits guarantees from the Colombian regime.
Chavez’s public statement is that FARC’s minimum conditions for a humanitarian accord, which would trade 45 FARC kidnapped prisoners for 500 government guerrilla prisoners, are the withdrawal of government troops from two provinces, Pradera and Florida. Without this withdrawal, no humanitarian accord.
By way of evaluation, I repeat that it seems very unlikely that this will succeed, and even if it does, it won’t really change the political or military balance at all. It could potentially benefit FARC politically and Chavez regionally, two reasons the Uribe/Bush/paramilitary regime are likely to reject it. Still, it is a genuinely humanitarian issue and deserves support, and those participating in it deserve respect for doing so.
Colombia Venezuela cools down a little
Just a quick glance around and it looks like Colombia and Venezuela have arrived at some kind of accord.
I’ll try to do more analysis of this, looking back over the files I’ve been gathering, in the next few days.
The Colombia Venezuela Crisis
As of yesterday Colombians will require visas to visit Venezuela.
Colombia’s President Alvaro Uribe Velez is planning a visit to the border.
The chancellors of the two countries are still meeting in Lima.
The Wayuu indigenous people who live on both sides of the border, hundreds of whom were displaced last year by paramilitary massacre in Colombia and fled to the Venezuelan side of the border, declaring war on the paramilitaries and on the Colombian government, demonstrated for their right to travel, trade, and cross the border freely – they don’t recognize the border, after all.
The Colombian press on the Colombia-Venezuela crisis
Today’s El Tiempo (Colombia’s national paper) is where one can find a summary of the Colombian establishment position. Chavez wants something simple: an apology from Uribe. El Tiempo says such a request is absurd, since Chavez is too ‘permissive’ with FARC. Phrases like ‘permissive with terrorism’ are useful all-purpose slurs that don’t require evidence, particularly when leveled against independent minded regimes (independent from the US, that is).
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The Granda Affair – Roundup from El Tiempo
Jorge Uribe, Colombia’s Foreign Minister, was responsible for offering a bounty on FARC spokesperson Rodrigo Granda’s head – that is apparently what led to Granda’s kidnapping in Caracas in December 2004, which in turn led to a diplomatic crisis between Colombia and Venezuela. Jorge Uribe offered to resign – but that decision is up to another Uribe, this time, Alvaro, the Colombian President. The reward for Granda offered by the Colombian government seems to have been $350,000, an anonymous source told El Tiempo.
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