In trying to decide where to focus some of my analysis in the coming weeks and months, the interface between South and West Asia keeps coming up. Readers may have seen that Musharraf has made his move in Pakistan, declaring a state of emergency, and dismissing the Chief Justice. Presumably this is to pre-empt a political process in which he might lose power.
In trying to decide where to focus some of my analysis in the coming weeks and months, the interface between South and West Asia keeps coming up. Readers may have seen that Musharraf has made his move in Pakistan, declaring a state of emergency, and dismissing the Chief Justice. Presumably this is to pre-empt a political process in which he might lose power.
The Americans have condemned the coup, and did so quickly. So did Canada, which of course doesn’t count for much except that both countries are right next door in Afghanistan. Benazir Bhutto is apparently still at large, calling for a withdrawal of the state of emergency. Musharraf said he’s willing to hold parliamentary elections still. I guess the only thing better than a coup for staying in power is two coups including a self-coup, each coup of which has a post-coup election to go with it.
To me it looks like a desperate move, but it also seems to me that no one is really in control right now. There’s the US, with its presence in Afghanistan, its military aid programs, its covert actions, and its pressure. There’s the Pakistani military, which is the biggest economic actor and tremendously powerful politically as well, but not necessarily united behind Musharraf. There’s an insurgency and a counterinsurgency on the border against Islamic groups that also fight in Afghanistan, possibly have many links into the Pakistani state and military, and have not been and will not be easily defeated or controlled. Musharraf could end up in control just for lack of an alternative, which Benazir Bhutto, who would survive only if the military allowed it, is not.
I’ll try to keep writing on this topic here.
